Baltimore Orioles: Who Has the Most to Prove in September?

As the calendar turns to September, the Baltimore Orioles sit seven games above .500 and only two games behind the Blue Jays for a playoff spot. With one full month remaining, the O’s hope to continue their hot streak into October and hopefully into a first playoff appearance since 2016.

Which Baltimore Orioles have the most to prove in September?

The eyes of the Major League Baseball world will be on Baltimore in this final month as they continue an improbably successful season and add even more offensive talent in Jesus Aguilar and Gunnar Henderson. Aguilar will make his O’s debut tonight against Cleveland and Henderson had a successful debut last night with a home run, single, and several impressive defensive plays at third base.

Fellow Birds Watchers writers have recently written about both Aguilar and Henderson so I will not say too much about them. However, there are other players who have been in Baltimore for a while who have plenty to prove over this month who I will write about here.

Relief Pitcher Bryan Baker

Baker made the opening day roster and has been a steady part of a much improved O’s bullpen all season. However, he has been inconsistent all season and has not pitched well in some high-leverage situations which means he has seen less usage with the emergence of pieces such as Felix Bautista and Dillon Tate. Baker has pitched in 52 games this season with a 4.22 ERA and 96 ERA+. This has made him a slightly below-average pitcher this season.

He has run into hard luck, reflected in a .340 BABIP and a 2.80 FIP. He has allowed only two home runs in 53 innings so he has an impressive ability to keep the ball in the yard which is valuable for a relief pitcher. The main issues with Baker have been his pitching in clutch scenarios. In high-leverage situations, he has given up an opposing OPS of 1.026 in 55 plate appearances. Both of the home runs he has given up have been in high-leverage situations and he has given up a BABIP of .516 in these situations. In low-leverage situations, the opposing OPS has dropped to .473 and BABIP to .261.

Notably, Bryan has made two starts this season as an opener. He pitched well in his first start against the Cardinals on May 12 with 2.1 shutout innings and three strikeouts but his second start against the Mariners did not go nearly as well with three earned runs given up in 1.1 innings in an eventual 10-0 loss.

The most appealing aspect of Baker’s game is the spin rate on his fastball which allows him to avoid hard contact and the home run ball. His three-pitch mix includes two fastballs (a four-seam and cutter) and a changeup. His fastball spin rate ranks in the 80th percentile and his average four-seamer sits at 96 miles per hour. He does not rely on deceptiveness as his opponent’s chase rate ranks in the 4th percentile but he does rely on not allowing hard contact as he has not allowed many barrels or other hard contact.

Unfortunately, if Baker cannot pitch in high-leverage situations then his future as a reliever looks fairly bleak. There is plenty to like out of him but if he continues to get shelled in situations where the O’s need a shutdown reliever, then his status for next year is questionable.

Baltimore Orioles: Who Has the Most to Prove in September?

Outfielder Austin Hays

Austin Hays had a great start to the season and it looked like he was playing himself into an outfield spot for the foreseeable future in Baltimore. However, recent struggles and the emergence of already highly touted prospects like Kyle Stowers and Colton Cowser have made his future somewhat questionable.

Overall, Hays has hit .252/.308/.425 with a 107 OPS+ in 478 plate appearances with 15 home runs and 54 runs batted in. The clear highlight of his season happened in June when he hit for the cycle in a 6-inning 7-0 win over the Washington Nationals. After the cycle concluded, Hays had a .829 OPS and many believed he had the opportunity to represent the Orioles in the All-Star Game. However, he has struggled mightily since then and has not been a productive player for an O’s team that needs as much offense as they can get down the home stretch.

He had a .566 OPS in July and was not much better at .638 in August. With Henderson and Stowers in Baltimore, it is possible that Hays sees his playing time decrease against right-handed pitchers. Tonight, he is not in the starting lineup with Terrin Vavra taking over in left field and Aguilar starting at DH.

Arm strength has been a strength for Hays (no pun intended). He has had seven outfield assists this year but other defensive metrics have suggested that he has not been a valuable defensive player. Throughout the minors, he has dealt with various injuries and that has continued into the majors as he injured his hand earlier this year.  With Cowser and Heston Kjerstad knocking on the door and Stowers improving, Hays will have a lot of pressure on him to improve his offensive metrics over this past month and over the first few months of next season if he wants to stay on the O’s long term.

Austin Hays is one of many Baltimore Orioles with something to prove in the final month of the season.

Infielder Ramon Urias

Ramon Urias and Jorge Mateo have formed a left side of the infield that has been surprisingly productive over the past season and change. Both players were waiver pickups that were essentially given up on by their former teams, the Cardinals and Padres respectively, and both have had productive seasons this year. However, with a young core of infielders in the minors and the arrival of Henderson, future infield spots may be hard to come by.

Mateo has played so well defensively and has elite baserunning skills that he seems to essentially be a lock to make the roster next year but things may be murkier for Urias. The assumption is that Rougned Odor will be gone at the end of the season as he is a free agent so it is perfectly plausible for Ramon to move over and play second base next year with Mateo at short and Henderson at third.

However, the O’s are looking to make a splash in the free agency market this year and the rumors of Carlos Correa signing in Baltimore could come to fruition and there are young infielders like Vavra, Jordan Westburg, Coby Mayo, and Connor Norby who have all been playing well and may see consistent playing time at the big league level sometime next season.

That being said, moving away from a player like Urias could be a possible move or it is even possible that he sticks around next year but does not play every day like he has this year. Urias played well for a couple of weeks after an IL stint but has since cooled off and has a season slash line of .247/.295/.422 with a 101 OPS+. Power has been an asset for him as he has hit 15 home runs in only 99 games, including one Wednesday night against Cleveland. He has accumulated an impressive 2 WAR in those 99 games according to Fangraphs and has had a strong defensive season with 10 defensive runs saved at third base. He has played well enough that it will be tough to justify moving away from him but he will need to keep the strong defense and power numbers going if he wants to safely be a member of the Orioles’ everyday lineup next season.