Baltimore Orioles: Draft Day One Recap and Analysis

The Baltimore Orioles drafted Jackson Holliday number one overall, plus three college bats in the later rounds during day one of the MLB draft.

Sunday night marked the fourth amateur draft in Mike Elias’ tenure as Baltimore Orioles general manager and the second time that he has had the opportunity to make the number one overall pick. In past years, Elias has shown that he is much keener on drafting position players than pitchers in the early rounds.  This year has been no different as the O’s selected four position players on day one: Jackson Holliday, Dylan Beavers, Max Wagner, and Jud Fabian. Holliday was the only high school player of the four selected and will likely sign a record-high signing bonus to come to Baltimore. Without further ado, let’s look at each of the four picks from day one and how each player will impact the future of Birdland. 

Competitive Balance Round A Pick 33: Dylan Beavers, OF, University of California

With the Orioles’ second pick, Elias solidified his reputation for picking college position players with the selection of Dylan Beavers out of California. Similar to Holliday, Beavers is considered a potential five-tool player at the major league level although he has a below-average hit tool and obviously does not have nearly as high of a ceiling as Holliday. Despite this, Beavers adds talent to an already stacked Orioles system in terms of outfield prospects. Notably, Beavers has an unorthodox swing that has caused him issues in college and in the Cape Cod Summer League at times, but scouts believe that his swing can be fixed with some development. Beavers has enough raw power and speed that if he does make the necessary adjustments then he can develop into an above average MLB player and has the speed and arm strength to stick in center field.

Beavers played only 8 games last summer in Cape Cod where he struggled with a slash line of .233/.286/.300 with two doubles. He has had an impressive college career, though, with a .291/.427/.634 slash line with 17 homers in 56 games for the Golden Bears. He also drew 51 walks in 272 plate appearances for a walk rate of 18.8% which shows good plate discipline that will hopefully translate in pro ball. With a plethora of young outfielders in the Orioles system, Beavers will need to stand out in some way in order to become a regular for the O’s in the future and his combination of raw power, speed, and defensive ability could allow him to stand out if he develops his swing.

Round 2 Pick 42: Max Wagner, 3B, Clemson University

Max Wagner had a prolific offensive season this past year for the Clemson Tigers which led him to being named the Atlantic Coast Conference player of the year as he tied the all-time Clemson record with 27 home runs during the season. Wagner came into the season as an afterthought but played himself into a day one selection with a slash line of .370/.496/.852 for an OPS of 1.348 in 58 games with the Tigers. Wagner also played well this past summer for his hometown Green Bay Booyahs of the Northwoods League where he slashed .313/.485/.566 with 6 home runs in 31 games. He has also shown good plate discipline as he had a walk rate above 21% in the Northwoods League as well as a 17.4% clip for Clemson this past season.

Wagner has plenty of raw strength which allows him to hit home runs and play third base. Within the Orioles system, Wagner seems like a similar prospect to Coby Mayo because both have plenty of raw strength that allows them to be highly ranked prospects, but Wagner is not nearly polished enough for his age to be a sure bet as an MLB player.

Competitive Balance Round B Pick 67: Jud Fabian, OF, University of Florida

Fabian was drafted by the Boston Red Sox in the second round of last year’s draft but returned to Florida after the two sides could not come to terms. Fabian does not hit well for average as he had a career .246 batting average for the Gators but makes up for it with good power numbers and a high walk rate. This past season Fabian slashed .239/.414/.598 with 24 homers and 62 walks in 66 games. As with many hitters with this combination of home run powers and walks, strikeouts are also a concern as he has a career strikeout rate of 24.3% in college and had a 26.3% strikeout rate in the Cape Cod League in the summer of 2019.

Fabian has the longest track record of any of the Orioles’ first four picks as he spent four seasons in college and two seasons in summer wood bat leagues and has hit well at each level. The strikeouts are the biggest concern for Fabian who may not stick in centerfield because of his average arm strength and may need to stick in the corner outfield in pro ball.

Ultimately, Mike Elias continued to stack college bats in this system with three of the four picks going that route. Each of the four picks add home run power to the system as the three college hitters hit a combined 68 homers this past season in the NCAA along with 17 home runs from Jackson Holliday in the high school ranks. Each player drafted has shown the ability to play each aspect of the game well and several of the draft picks have five tool potential and the ability to be above average MLB players. Day two of the draft continues Monday and the draft concludes Tuesday where the Orioles will hope to add some more future big leaguers to the system.