Baltimore Orioles: Draft Day One Recap and Analysis

Round 1 Pick 1: Jackson Holliday, SS, Stillwater High School (OK)

There were five players who were in serious consideration for the number one pick coming into draft night and high school shortstop Jackson Holliday out of Oklahoma ended up being the pick. The pick came somewhat as a surprise to baseball fans (including us) as many experts had either Termarr Johnson, Druw Jones, or Brooks Lee as the number one overall pick but Elias decided to go with Holliday.

Jackson is the son of former Major League outfielder Matt Holliday who played the majority of his career for the Rockies and Cardinals and earned seven All-Star appearances in his fourteen-year career. Jackson is a great all-around player who likely has the athleticism to stick at shortstop at the Major League level which could prove important for the Orioles who will need to move infield prospects such as Gunnar Henderson, Coby Mayo, and Connor Norby away from short.

According to most scouting reports, Holliday is above average in every aspect of the game with his biggest strength being his hit tool. He had an eye-popping slash line of .685/.749/1.392 for an OPS of 2.141 on the high school circuit this season and broke J.T. Realmuto‘s record for most hits in a season in high school history with 89 in 41 games. One concern for Holliday has been his offensive struggles in national showcase circuits throughout his high school career, particularly in the summer before his senior year when many scouts believe he was too focused on hitting home runs which caused his swing to become too long. The Orioles clearly were not swayed by these offensive struggles and believe that Holliday has the chance to be an elite hitter at the highest level.

As with any high school prospect, there is plenty of room for growth and Holliday will likely spend several seasons in the minors before playing home games at Camden Yards. As far as high school picks go, Holliday has about as safe of a ceiling possible as he has all the tools necessary to be an above-average MLB player, but the Orioles will need to develop his power and defense to ensure that Holliday can be a superstar.

If Holliday pans out, it is likely that he and Henderson will patrol the left side of the Orioles infield for many years which might force prospects such as Mayo, Norby, Cesar Prieto, and Jordan Westburg to compete with each other for roster spots in the coming years. Holliday is also a rare left-handed hitting shortstop, and this is the third consecutive year that Elias has selected a lefty with his first pick after Heston Kjerstad in 2020 and Colton Cowser last year.

Competitive Balance Round A Pick 33: Dylan Beavers, OF, University of California

With the Orioles’ second pick, Elias solidified his reputation for picking college position players with the selection of Dylan Beavers out of California. Similar to Holliday, Beavers is considered a potential five-tool player at the major league level although he has a below-average hit tool and obviously does not have nearly as high of a ceiling as Holliday. Despite this, Beavers adds talent to an already stacked Orioles system in terms of outfield prospects. Notably, Beavers has an unorthodox swing that has caused him issues in college and in the Cape Cod Summer League at times, but scouts believe that his swing can be fixed with some development. Beavers has enough raw power and speed that if he does make the necessary adjustments then he can develop into an above average MLB player and has the speed and arm strength to stick in center field.

Beavers played only 8 games last summer in Cape Cod where he struggled with a slash line of .233/.286/.300 with two doubles. He has had an impressive college career, though, with a .291/.427/.634 slash line with 17 homers in 56 games for the Golden Bears. He also drew 51 walks in 272 plate appearances for a walk rate of 18.8% which shows good plate discipline that will hopefully translate in pro ball. With a plethora of young outfielders in the Orioles system, Beavers will need to stand out in some way in order to become a regular for the O’s in the future and his combination of raw power, speed, and defensive ability could allow him to stand out if he develops his swing.

Round 2 Pick 42: Max Wagner, 3B, Clemson University

Max Wagner had a prolific offensive season this past year for the Clemson Tigers which led him to being named the Atlantic Coast Conference player of the year as he tied the all-time Clemson record with 27 home runs during the season. Wagner came into the season as an afterthought but played himself into a day one selection with a slash line of .370/.496/.852 for an OPS of 1.348 in 58 games with the Tigers. Wagner also played well this past summer for his hometown Green Bay Booyahs of the Northwoods League where he slashed .313/.485/.566 with 6 home runs in 31 games. He has also shown good plate discipline as he had a walk rate above 21% in the Northwoods League as well as a 17.4% clip for Clemson this past season.

Wagner has plenty of raw strength which allows him to hit home runs and play third base. Within the Orioles system, Wagner seems like a similar prospect to Coby Mayo because both have plenty of raw strength that allows them to be highly ranked prospects, but Wagner is not nearly polished enough for his age to be a sure bet as an MLB player.

Competitive Balance Round B Pick 67: Jud Fabian, OF, University of Florida

Fabian was drafted by the Boston Red Sox in the second round of last year’s draft but returned to Florida after the two sides could not come to terms. Fabian does not hit well for average as he had a career .246 batting average for the Gators but makes up for it with good power numbers and a high walk rate. This past season Fabian slashed .239/.414/.598 with 24 homers and 62 walks in 66 games. As with many hitters with this combination of home run powers and walks, strikeouts are also a concern as he has a career strikeout rate of 24.3% in college and had a 26.3% strikeout rate in the Cape Cod League in the summer of 2019.

Fabian has the longest track record of any of the Orioles’ first four picks as he spent four seasons in college and two seasons in summer wood bat leagues and has hit well at each level. The strikeouts are the biggest concern for Fabian who may not stick in centerfield because of his average arm strength and may need to stick in the corner outfield in pro ball.

Ultimately, Mike Elias continued to stack college bats in this system with three of the four picks going that route. Each of the four picks add home run power to the system as the three college hitters hit a combined 68 homers this past season in the NCAA along with 17 home runs from Jackson Holliday in the high school ranks. Each player drafted has shown the ability to play each aspect of the game well and several of the draft picks have five tool potential and the ability to be above average MLB players. Day two of the draft continues Monday and the draft concludes Tuesday where the Orioles will hope to add some more future big leaguers to the system.