Baltimore Orioles at Seattle 6/27-6/29 Picks to Click

The Baltimore Orioles have made the cross-country flight to Seattle for a 3 game set. Hopefully the Mariners have calmed down, as they may be a little shorthanded after yesterday’s brawl. In this article, I’ll be highlighting Oriole batters who have had success against pitches similar to the opposing starter’s arsenal.

That is, pitches thrown from the same side within the velocity range of the starter are considered similar.

For clicks to pick over this Baltimore Orioles series, I’ll be using wOBA, or weighted on-base average, fairly often. wOBA estimates a batter’s contribution to scoring runs, and a full rundown of wOBA can be found here. The MLB average wOBA is .310, with Paul Goldschmidt and Yordan Alvarez currently leading the majors with a wOBA of .442.

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Game 1: George Kirby, RHP

• Trey Mancini: Kirby is off to a very good start in his career, in large part to his reliance on his excellent fastball, which he throws for 52.7% of his pitches. However, Mancini has handled similar fastballs impressively well over the last two seasons, with a .383 wOBA and 6 home runs in 82 plate appearances. Kirby’s secondary pitch is his slider, and Mancini is even better against that with a .441 wOBA over the same timespan.
• Adley Rutschman: While there’s not a large body of work to go off of, the early returns against Kirby’s pitches have been phenomenal. In 22 plate appearances against similar fastballs, Adley has a .445 wOBA including one of his home runs. Against similar sliders he’s 2/3 with a double. Adley should come out on top in this matchup of top prospects.

Game 2: Robbie Ray, LHP

• Rougned Odor: Ray relies primarily on his fastball and slider, combining for 86.6% of his pitches. Facing similar pitches over the last two seasons, Odor is 7/20 against the fastball and has a .343 wOBA and 2 home runs against the slider. In addition, Odor is significantly better against lefties on the season, with an OPS over 150 points higher than against righties. Odor over 1.5 total bases at plus money would be a good play.
• Austin Hays: Based off of his performance against similar pitches, this is a dream matchup for Hays. Facing similar fastball over the last two seasons, Hays has 6 home runs and a .557 wOBA. As impressive as those numbers are, he’s even better against the slider. Over the same span, he’s gone 8/14 with 2 home runs. If you’re looking for a home run bet for the game, this is your guy.

Baltimore Orioles at Seatle 6/27-6/29 Picks to Click

• Tyler Nevin: While sample size is an issue, it’s hard to ignore what Nevin has done against similar pitches. Both of his home runs on the year have come against pitches similar to Ray’s fastball and slider. Facing the fastball he has a .423 wOBA and a home run, and he’s gone 2/2 with a home run against similar sliders. To top it off, he has a .838 OPS on the year against lefties. If he gets the start, this will be a good opportunity for Nevin to move up towards the Mendoza line.

Game 3: Chris Flexen, RHP

• Cedric Mullins: Over 3/4 of Flexen’s pitches are fastballs, with a fairly even split between 4-seamers and cutters. This is great news for Mullins. Since going lefty full time, Mullins has pounded similar 4-seamers to the tune of a .587 wOBA and 10 home runs. Against similar cutters he’s an eye-popping 12/18. After a slow start to the season, he’s begun to turn things around in June with a .739 OPS. He has a great shot here to end the month with a bang.
• Ryan Mountcastle: Mountcastle has had a stellar June, posting a .937 OPS so far. Similar to Mullins, Mountcastle has a golden opportunity to put a bow on the month. Over the last two seasons he has a .582 wOBA and .554 wOBA against similar 4-seamers and cutters.

Righties as a whole have had success against Flexen’s 4-seamer on the season, posting a .357 AVG and 5 home runs. Mountcastle shouldn’t have a problem doing some damage in the finale, as the Baltimore Orioles look to clinch their first winning month since August 2017.