Baltimore Orioles: Three Bounce-Back Free Agent Pitching Options

The Baltimore Orioles can always use a groundball pitcher.

Last offseason, the Baltimore Orioles signed one free agent to a major league contract, RHP Nate Karns. Karns hadn’t pitched in the majors since 2017, but many believed he still had quality stuff and could provide valuable innings for a young O’s staff.

Unfortunately, the Karns experiment was a complete bust as he logged just 5.1 innings at the major league level. Instead of going after guys who haven’t seen a big league mound in two years, how about we shorten that one year?

Kendall Gravemann logged his first full season of work back in 2015 with the Oakland A’s, going 6-9 with a 4.05 ERA and 77 strikeouts in 115 innings. He followed that up with a 10 win season in 2016 and a 1.9 fWAR year. Despite low strikeout totals, he kept the ball in the yard and had a noted improvement in his walk rate.

In 2018, Graveman was named Oakland’s Opening Day starter, but made just seven starts (1-5, 7.60 ERA) before being sent to the minor leagues and ultimately going under the knife for Tommy John Surgery. He would miss the rest of 2018 and all of 2019, minus three rehab innings in rookie ball and three in Triple-A at the end of the season.

The Chicago Cubs decided to look towards 2020 when they signed Graveman last offseason, know ing he would miss 2019 recovering from surgery. It now appears they have changed their mind after declining to pick up Graveman’s $3 million option.

Chicago could still look to bring him back on a new, cheaper deal as they try and clear some payroll for free agency, or were they looking to go ahead and part ways now, knowing Graveman wasn’t progressing as expected from Tommy John?

If healthy, Graveman is a groundball pitcher with a decent track record of limiting home runs, an effective changeup (35% whiff rate, .253 wOBA in 2018) and high-spin fastball, and a history of producing a lot of weak contact.

Can Michael Wacha overcome shoulder issues to contribute with the Baltimore Orioles?

Just on name recognition alone, Michael Wacha may be the most noted free agent pitcher looking to bounce back in 2020. The former first-round pick of the St. Louis Cardinals made more than $6 million last season, but recorded career-highs in walks (3.91 BB/9 IP) and home runs  (1.85/9 IP) allowed. He was worth -0.2 Wins Above Replacement, according to Fangraphs.

Shoulder injuries played a major role in Wacha struggle’s last season, but he’s 28 and was worth 3.1 WAR as recently as 2017 with the Cardinals. If he can catch on with the right organization and turn things around in 2020, a team in need of shoring up the backend of their rotation is likely to come calling at next year’s deadline.

MLB Trade Rumors projects Wacha signing with the Tigers for $6 million, which seems a bit high. However, it makes a lot of sense for a rebuilding franchise like Detroit or Baltimore to take a flyer on Wacha this winter with his low home run totals, 6’6″ height, highly effective changeup (.199 average against, 39% whiff rate), and respectable groundball numbers (49.5% last season, four points above league average).

In his seven seasons as a big league pitcher, Wacha is 59-39 with a 3.91 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and a 1.0 HR/9 IP rate. He’s also averaged eight strikeouts per game. Of course, there are causes for concern.

Shoulder injuries aren’t something you want to be discussing when talking about investing in a starting pitcher, especially when that pitchers’ average fastball velocity has dropped from 95.1 mph to 93 mph since 2017. Wacha’s fastball was hit hard (..324 average, .556 slugging) and produced a career-low 12% whiff rate.

If the Baltimore Orioles are going to go down the route of a veteran coming off an injury during free agency, perhaps this last option would be the better choice.

Alex Wood could have the highest upside for the Baltimore Orioles.

Wood, also 28 years old, found early success in the big leagues with the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers, but started just seven games for the Cincinnati Reds after being traded in the offseason along with outfielders Matt Kemp and Yasiel Puig.

The Reds were getting a left-handed pitcher who had logged just north of 150 innings in each of the last two seasons, won a combined 25 games, struck out 286 hitters, and made his first All-Star game in 2017 (finished 9th in Cy Young voting).

Wood went 16-3 with a 2.72 ERA and .216 average against during that 2017 season and proved his breakout season wasn’t a fluke after putting up similar value the following season.

Unfortunately, back injuries limited Wood to just seven starts in 2019. He was 1-3 with a 5.80 ERA, giving up an uncharacteristic 11 home runs in 35 innings. According to Fangraphs, Wood was worth -0.2 Wins Above Replacement.

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He now enters free agency for the first time in his career, looking to replicate some of his earlier success in the big leagues. Wood believes he is on track to being 100% healthy for next season, per a quote from this Cincinnati.com article.

If so, Wood is 53-43 with a 3.40 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 22% strikeout rate, and 6.8% walk rate across his career. Like many other free agent pitchers we have profiled, Wood rarely gives up a home run, giving up just 79 in 839 career innings (0.8/9 IP).

MLB Trade Rumors projects Wood signing a one-year deal worth $8 million with Seattle. His potential upside is very high, likely leading to many teams giving him a call this winter. The Orioles aren’t looking to add much to the payroll in the offseason, but if Wood can bounce back, he could net whichever team that signs him a few impressive prospects at the trade deadline.

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