Baltimore Orioles: Projected Arbitration Figures And Decisions

Will the Baltimore Orioles bring back all seven of their arbitration-eligible players?

Tender or not to tender? General manager Mike Elias has already come out and said he will spend the offseason finding ways to shed salary and add cost-effective free agents instead of making big splashes in the free agent market. He must also decide whether or not to tender a contract to seven arbitration-eligible players.

Thanks to MLB Trade Rumor’s annual Projected Arbitration Salaries piece, we have some initial estimates to consider when taking a look at these seven players. Odds are the Orioles bring back all seven, but should they?

Let’s take a look at these seven players, their 2019 salaries, projected raises this offseason, and whether or not they should return in 2020.

There’s no doubt Trey Mancini returns to the Baltimore Orioles next season.

2019 salary- $576,000      MLBTR projected salary- $5.7 million

At the beginning of the season, many fans believed trading Trey Mancini was a great idea to help in adding more talent to the minor league system. By the end of the year, the trade talks had largely ceased and most reports out of Birdland agreed that the odds of Mike Elias moving the former eighth-round pick are slim.

Setting career-highs in home runs (35), doubles (38), RBI (97), and OPS (.899), Mancini stepped up at the plate and as a leader in the clubhouse in his third season as a major leaguer. Want more impressive numbers? How about a 3.6 fWAR (which includes brutal defensive play in the outfield), a 132 wRC+, and the highest walk rate and lowest strikeout rates of his career.

This year’s Most Valuable Oriole, Mancini is still a trade chip, but isn’t likely to bring back a return worth moving him. Despite wanting to shed salary, a salary of around $6 million is a solid price for someone poised to become the face of the franchise in 2020.

Will the Baltimore Orioles pay up for Jonathan Villar?

2019 salary- $4.83 million         MLBTR projected salary- $10.4 million

Villar made a serious case for the Most Valuable Oriole award with his 62 extra-base hits, 40 stolen bases, 111 runs scored, and .274/.339/.792 slash line. He also made one of the biggest jumps in offensive production from the first half of the season to the second, increasing his wRC+ from 96 to 120.

The Orioles tried to trade Villar at the deadline, but weren’t overwhelmed by any offers and held on to the 28-year-old switch-hitting infielder. Maybe his hot second half and 4.0 fWAR season attracts a more aggressive suitor this offseason, otherwise, could Baltimore non-tender one of their best players from 2019?

Beat writers have thrown the idea out there and if Villar is indeed destined to earn more then $10 million next season, it shouldn’t come as a shock if this particular decision is made.

The flip side to this is that the Orioles will have to rely on the likes of Hanser Alberto, Richie Martin, and either an unproven rookie in Mason McCoy or a fringe major leaguer signed through free agency.

I don’t expect the Orioles to just let Villar walk and if no one comes calling this offseason, he comes back for another year. I don’t see a 2020 deadline deal getting done if teams have already passed on him twice.

Dylan Bundy improved in 2019 and will return to the rotation for the Baltimore Orioles.

2019 salary- $2.8 million       MLBTR projected salary- $5.7 million

I don’t see any scenario in which Dylan Bundy is non-tendered. The Orioles are already going to struggle to put together a starting rotation as is, taking away their second-best starter in 2019 isn’t going to happen.

Take away the expectation that Bundy is a frontline starter in the major leagues and the Orioles should be happy with the progress the 26-year-old righty made this season.

After leading the majors in home runs allowed in 2018, Bundy cut his home run rate from 2.15/9 IP to 1.61/9 IP, increased his groundball rate by more than seven percent to 41.5% (career-high), and was worth 2.5 fWAR, just shy of his career-best of 2.8 (2016).

Bundy ended the year with one his better monthly performance of 2019, recording a 3.80 ERA, a .239 average against, and 24 strikeouts in 23 innings (only three home runs allowed).

He’s learning to pitch without his velocity and found a good bit of success down the stretch. If he can take the next step and work on his location, Bundy will be worth the approximately $6 million projected salary and should outperform any free agent of the caliber the Orioles are likely to bring in this offseason.

A small projected raise for Givens means an easy decision for the Baltimore Orioles.

2019 salary- $2.15 million         MLBTR projected salary- $3.2 million

The rumor mill was cranking early this season when it came to Mychal Givens, but like the Villar rumors, nothing came to fruition. It was a tough year for Givens, but some of that may be tied to how he was used in 2019.

Overall, he was 2-6 with a 4.57 ERA (career-high) with 11 saves in his first season as the primary closer for Baltimore. It didn’t take long for manager Brandon Hyde to move to a closer by committee approach after watching Givens allow 15 runs on 22 hits (six home runs) through the first two months of the season.

The ninth inning wasn’t exactly where Givens excelled. His 6.69 ERA and 1.51 WHIP weren’t numbers you want to see out of your closer, but his 1.93 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in the eighth inning of ballgames was impressive. He also logged 3.2 innings of work in the seventh inning. Just one of 11 batters he faced reached base (walk).

I feel a bright idea coming on. Don’t pitch Mychal Givens in the ninth inning. His career-high 12.29 K/9 IP was a bright spot and a reason he may be attractive to other teams this offseason. A trade is the likeliest option this offseason, but if not, Givens returns as the setup man to Hunter Harvey in 2020 and gets an opportunity to turn things around.

Hanser Alberto has a home with the Baltimore Orioles.

2019 salary- $578,000                  MLBTR projected salary- $1.9 million

A lot of fans probably never even knew the Orioles had claimed Hanser Alberto off waivers this offseason (on two different occasions), yet the journeyman utility infielder found himself challenging for the American League batting title up until the end of the season in his first season as an Oriole.

Alberto will be back with the Orioles next year, hopefully playing more second base where his glove played up a bit, compared to shortstop and third base.

He doesn’t walk (2.9% of plate appearances), he doesn’t get a lot of extra-base hits (.116 ISO), and his average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage both ranked among the bottom 1% of all major league hitters.

What Alberto does do well is get on base and mash left-handed pitching. A .398 average against LHP probably isn’t sustainable, but if he can trade some of that in to balance out his .238 average against RHP, the Orioles will be happy.

Pay the man and let him play as much as possible in 2020. The Orioles have a number of younger prospects with higher upside who project to fill the same role as Alberto (Rylan Bannon being one). If Alberto can continue to impress next season, he could be a trade chip (although not a highly valuable one) and his salary is off the books and replaced by a rookie contract such as Bannon’s.

Miguel Castro will get one last opportunity with the Baltimore Orioles.

2019 salary- $569,000            MLBTR projected salary- $1.2 million

We all know the Miguel Castro story very well by now. Maybe we’re just being suckered in again, but Castro’s strong end to 2019 (minus his six-run outing against Toronto) allows a bit of optimism to pop back in as we look forward to spring training 2020.

Armed with a high-velocity fastball and wipe-out slider, Castro will be just 25 years old when Opening Day rolls around next year and is worth the $1 million or so to give him one last opportunity to prove himself in the major leagues.

More from Birds Watcher

• Baltimore Orioles Sign RP Mychal Givens
• Gunnar Henderson: Destroyer of Four-Seam Fastballs
• Which Current Baltimore Orioles Pitchers Have the Best Curveballs?
• Orioles News: Should the O’s Pursue Eovaldi? + More MLB News
• Should the Baltimore Orioles Consider Signing Nathan Eovaldi?

The $1.1 million projected salary for Bleier is a bit much, but I’ll gladly pay around that same amount for Castro’s potential upside.

Castro walked an extreme amount of hitters (5.03/9 IP), but his 8.71 K/9 IP was a massive increase over his high of 5.94/9 IP as a member of the Orioles. Entering 2019, Castro had accumulated -0.7 fWAR in parts of four seasons and was worth 0.4 fWAR this year, while also posting the lowest FIP of his career at 4.73.

To wrap it all up, don’t be surprised to see all seven players tendered before the deadline in a few weeks, but Richard Bleier is right on the bubble and the likeliest to be non-tendered due to his down season and age. Bundy and Mancini remain trade candidates, but odds are low either are moved. We may not be able to say the same about Villar and Givens.

If you didn’t check out the link at the beginning of the article, you can view every projected salary for all arbitration players here.