Baltimore Orioles Rule 5 Draft: The Locks, Those On The Bubble, And More

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BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – SEPTEMBER 22: Fans mingle in the kids zone during the Baltimore Orioles and Seattle Mariners game at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on September 22, 2019 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

The Baltimore Orioles have a number of players who are Rule 5 draft-eligible. Who will they protect? Who will they leave vulnerable? Who may other teams covet, if left unavailable?

Growing up just minutes away from Harbor Park, home of the Baltimore Orioles Triple-A affiliate Norfolk Tides, I’ve always been fascinated with minor league baseball. One of my favorite baseball memories is having my dad explain how the minor league system works and trying to explain to me why it was great that Jorge Toca was my favorite player to watch when went to Tides games (they were a New York Mets affiliate until I left town for college), but I shouldn’t have any hopes of him one day playing in the major leagues.

As I got older, it was fun to go into games blind, watch different players closely, and try to determine for myself whether or not a particular player could have a future in the big leagues or not. Recently, more and more baseball fans have become die-hard fans of minor league ball and the amount of information about prospects is at an all-time high. It’s been really fun to watch the love for prospects, and minor league ball in general, grow.

With this rise comes a bigger interest in the Rule 5 draft, an event I had no idea existed a decade ago. While players selected in this draft rarely pan out, there have been plenty of success stories and it gives fans something fun to debate about during the month of December. For fans of the Baltimore Orioles, the Rule 5 draft is a bit of a bigger event, thanks to a plethora of selections over the years.

Most of these selections never amounted to anything, but guys like Ryan Flaherty and Joey Rickard found roles as utility players/depth options, Anthony Santander seems to be finding his major league footing now and could be on the 2020 Opening Day roster due to his talent, not due to a lack of players to choose from, and 2018 selection Richie Martin has promise, with a little more seasoning down in the minor leagues next season.

So, which players in the Baltimore Orioles organization are Rule 5 eligible this season and who gets protected?

The Baltimore Orioles have a lot of decisions to make in the coming weeks concerning Rule 5 draft-eligible players.

Finding room on the 40-man roster to protect Rule 5 eligible players won’t be a difficult task for Mike Elias and his team. When an organization struggles to win 50 games in a season, the lack of talent is clear.

Mark Trumbo will come off the roster and become a free agent at the end of the season, but we can fill his spot with pitcher Alex Cobb. Players on the injured list must come off and be placed back on the 40-man by the end of the season. LHP Josh Rogers is also on the 60-day IL, but after having Tommy John revision surgery, aka a second TJ surgery, the Orioles may elect to move on from the former Louisville Cardinal.

With Cedric Mullins finishing the year hot and Austin Hays making fans wish the 2019 season would continue a bit longer, Mason Williams may be an option to return to the organization as a depth piece but can be taken off the 40-man for now. Pitchers such as Chandler Shepherd (removed from the 40-man roster on Monday), Tayler Scott, Ryan Eades, and Evan Phillips are also easy choices, just to name a few.

How many spots on the 40-man will Mike Elias need? We have broken up this group of Rule 5 guys into three groups. First, those who will certainly be protected, followed by those on the bubble, and then those who won’t be protected but are at risk of being selected by another team, or at least have shown something during their careers.

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – SEPTEMBER 22: A general view of the concourse during the Baltimore Orioles and Seattle Mariners game at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on September 22, 2019 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

Baltimore Orioles minor leaguers who should be protected.

Before we dive in, draft-eligible information used for this piece comes from Fangraphs’ Roster Resource page. They incorrectly have outfielder Yusniel Diaz labeled as eligible, but The Athletic’s Dan Connolly has confirmed that Diaz still has another year to go.

We don’t need to go into much detail about the most obvious eligible prospect, Ryan Mountcastle. His 40-man spot is secure and his spot in the major league lineup will open up a few weeks into the season, due to service time games. All of Birdland is ready to see what 22-year-old has, especially after posting 61 extra-base hits in 127 games this season.

LHP Keegan Akin and RHP Dean Kremer are also locks to be protected. Akin led the International League in strikeouts (131) and had one of the lowest ERA’s in Triple-A, among qualified pitchers. His ability to limit walks has been an issue since his college days at Western Michigan and hasn’t improved since joining the professional ranks, but his stuff is major league-quality. He will be up at or around the same time as Mountcastle.

After striking out 178 hitters and leading all of minor league baseball in 2018, Kremer fanned 122 in about 20 fewer innings in 2019. An oblique injury cut into his innings, hence why he’s currently in the Arizona Fall League, but he was still able to dominate with Double-A Bowie (9-4, 2.98 ERA) before making his Triple-A debut. Despite an 8.84 ERA through four starts, Kremer stuck out 21 hitters in 19 innings. He should start 2020 in Triple-A, but will likely find himself in the big leagues before the end of the season.

There’s one more name who I would place in this category, RHP Cody Sedlock. At this time last year, I had completely written off Sedlock as another first-round bust. His velocity had dipped, injuries piled up, and opponents feasted on his repertoire. One year later, Sedlock has become one of the bigger examples of success when it comes to this new system of player development in the Baltimore Orioles organization.

He avoided surgery to relieve symptoms of thoracic outlet syndrome and dominated with the Frederick Keys and Bowie Baysox this season, combining to go 5-3 with a 2.84 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and a .202 average against. He struck out an even 100 in 95 innings.

I think the Orioles continue to move slowly with Sedlock, but will put him on the 40-man to protect him and then let him start the season back in Double-A after working just 34 innings at the level to end last season. After watching him in 2019, Sedlock made me a believer again.

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – SEPTEMBER 22: A general view of the Eutaw Street entrance during the Baltimore Orioles and Seattle Mariners game at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on September 22, 2019 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

Baltimore Orioles Rule 5 guys on the bubble.

The biggest name remaining is outfielder Ryan McKenna. McKenna burst onto the scene last year with his elite speed, ability to get on base, and a bit of home run power. However, since hitting .377 with a .467 OBP and 28 extra-base hits in 67 games with High-A Frederick, McKenna has struggled to a .234 average and seen his wRC+ drop to league average in his two stints in Double-A.

Coaches expressed frustration with his play, he stole a career-high 25 bags, but was caught 11 times in the process, and there’s some competition in the outfield now. Austin Hays has the inside track to the starting center field job and Cedric Mullins came on very strong at the end of the year and will spend his offseason following a new development plan the organization has set for him. McKenna may be an elite defender, but will his upside be enough to protect him?

My gut says the Orioles will protect him and give him one last opportunity to prove himself. McKenna is only 22, so there’s still time to adjust and improve, and his upside is higher than any free agent signing the Orioles will be willing to spend on this offseason.

Acquired as part of the return for Kevin Gausman and Darren O’Day, catcher Brett Cumberland now finds himself Rule 5 eligible and on the bubble. Injuries limited him to just 60 games across three levels, finishing with a .248 average, .395 OBP, four home runs and 20 RBI in 41 games at the Double-A level. With a career average of .243, Cumberland has been unable set settle in offensively, which is problematic considering his subpar defensive abilities.

The Orioles don’t need another Chance Sisco/Austin Wynns type, they have catchers with better defense in the system, and have a guy named Adley Rutschman waiting in the wings. Cumberland doesn’t need to be protected and may still stick with the organization.

RHP Gray Fenter is a bit of tougher decision. Fenter was healthy all season with the Delmarva Shorebirds, finishing with an 8-2 record, 1.81 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and .185 average against in 22 appearances (17 starts). He was part of a record-breaking pitching staff, striking out 123 in 94 innings. Armed with a three-pitch mix, including a fastball that some believe can sit in the mid-90’s if converted to a reliever, Fenter has the potential to contribute at the major league level, down the road.

I want to say the Orioles protect him and bank on his potential, but he has yet to pitch above full-season A-ball and the Orioles will need every 40-man spot available for pitchers to help them get through 2020. Unfortunately, the numbers don’t work out in Fenter’s favor and I could see another team taking a chance on him.

RHP Steven Klimek is another interesting name. Now 25, Klimek had a big year between Frederick and Bowie, going 6-2 with a 2.17 ERA and .191 average against. He allowed a total of zero home runs, always something very special to see from an Orioles pitcher at any level. His big curveball received a lot of praise this season and he posted a career-high strikeout rate (9.28/9 IP) while with Bowie. Unlike Fenter, since Klimek already has AA experience, I could see the Orioles protecting him, starting him out at Triple-A next year and seeing what he has.

Last up, we take a look at a few guys who are eligible, but odds are very low they get protected. However, there is always the possibility of getting snagged by another team, especially in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft.

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – SEPTEMBER 19: Fans walk along Eutaw Street in the outfield during the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays game at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on September 19, 2019 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

These Baltimore Orioles are likely to stick around, but they will be available in the Rule 5 draft.

Here’s the list of notable minor leaguers available, taking out any upcoming minor league free agents. There are plenty more eligible names, but these are just a small group of guys who once had potential or who have shown at least something during their time in the Baltimore Orioles organization.

Perez has a career ERA of 2.84 and 1.11 WHIP in 269.2 innings over the last five seasons. He can be wild (25 hit batters and 52 walks in the last two seasons), but he’s an exciting pitcher to watch work and does a fantastic job of limiting base hits.

Muckenhirn is someone who a team could take a flyer on. He limited hitters to a .203 average and struck out 65 in 53 innings with Bowie this season. At 25, it isn’t a crazy idea to think he makes a few major league appearances at some point in 2020, especially if the pitching staff performs as it did this season.

There was a lot of hype surrounding Ofelkty Peralta early in 2019 after going 6-2 with a 3.03 ERA and 79 strikeouts in 68 innings. However, this came after two failed attempts at High-A ball and having to repeat full-season ball. Peralta finished the year with his third trip to Frederick, going 3-3 with a 5.48 ERA and 1.62 WHIP.

Matthias Dietz had a lot of promise coming out of the MLB draft. Considered by many to be the top JUCO arm in the draft, Dietz has struggled with command over the last four years. “Struggle” is putting it nicely. I’m fairly certain I saw more balls fly into the field of play while he was warming up than strikes across the plate while in games. He finished the year in Frederick with a 1-8 record, 10.29 ERA and 51 walks in 39 innings. It’s safe to say he won’t be around much longer.

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Palmeiro put up respectable numbers in 2017 and 2018, increasing his home run total, lowering his strikeout rate, and playing a pretty decent second base. Unfortunately, he was moved back to first base with Bowie and had a down year offensively for the Baysox. If Baltimore is going to keep him at first base, a .249 career average, .309 OBP and 35 home runs over parts of four seasons isn’t going to be enough.

I refuse to believe Jomar Reyes is only 22, yet he is. Reyes spent his fourth season in High-A Ball this year, hitting .283 with 32 extra-base hits and didn’t punch any walls. He earned his first trip to Double-A but was immediately placed on the Injured List and saw just one at-bat. He’s someone who followers of the minor league system always hoped would turn his raw power into something, but that doesn’t appear to be the case.

Next. Ten Fun Orioles Numbers From 2019. dark

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