Baltimore Orioles: The Most And Least Helpful Players Of 2019

Would you believe me if I said a Baltimore Orioles reliever had the highest WPA?

First, some context. As of May 25th, Cody Bellinger of the Los Angeles Dodgers leads all major league hitters with a 2.87 WPA. Josh Bell sits in second with a 2.41, while Christian Yelich, Mike Trout, and Mookie Betts round out the top five. They are the only hitters with a WPA of 2.0 or higher, for now. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Eduardo Nunez has the worst WPA among major league hitters with at least 50 at-bats (-1.79).

As for pitching, San Diego Padres closer Kirby Yates currently leads all pitchers with a 2.14 WPA and Washington Nationals reliever Wander Suero holds a league-worst -1.71 WPA. This is among pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched. If we include a 10-inning minimum, San Francisco Giants reliever Will Smith leads the way with a 2.18 mark.

What about the Baltimore Orioles?

Only seven hitters have a positive WPA for the Orioles. One of those is pitcher John Means (0.1), another is Anthony Santander (0.24 in one game), and recently acquired Keon Broxton (0.14) also appears on this list. This means we are looking at just four regular hitters on the positive side of this metric.

Third baseman Rio Ruiz leads the way at 0.46 WPA, with Trey Mancini coming in second at 0.29. Mancini was abysmal, as far as WPA is concerned, last season, finishing with a -2.72 mark. Currently hitting .300 with 10 home runs and an .890 OPS, Mancini has done most of his damage within the first three innings of games (.368/.388/.684 compared to a .250/.333/.482 slash late in games). All the action early on in a game isn’t going to swing the probability of win too much, in either direction.

On the other hand, Rio Ruiz has been clutch when up to bat in a tied game or when the Orioles are up or down by one run. He’s hitting .440 (11-25) when the game is tied and has a .914 OPS when the Orioles are within one run. Ruiz has quietly gone about his job this season, serving as a more than capable third baseman. Unless a major free agent acquisition or trade to bring in a third baseman occurs, Ruiz will likely be around for a bit.

The other players who find themselves in the positive- Austin Wynns (0.07) and Dwight Smith Jr.(0.12).

Pitching WPA leaders for the Baltimore Orioles.

The pitching staff hasn’t done much to help this team win, that is obvious. In a piece I put together a few weeks ago, I highlighted the hot stretches of Ruiz and Gabriel Ynoa. In that piece, I made some comment about not trusting anyone in the Baltimore Orioles bullpen. Regretfully, Paul Fry never crossed my mind. I guess that is what happens when you are an Orioles pitcher who actually does their job. My apologies to Paul Fry.

Of the small number of pitchers who have helped the Orioles win ballgames, or at least push the odds higher in their favor, Paul Fry has been the best. His 0.80 WPA currently leads the O’s staff.

Fry has appeared in 21 games this season, posting a 3.32 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 21.2 innings. He isn’t striking opponents out at a high clip (just 13 punchouts) but he is limiting hitters to a .197 average and producing a 63.5% groundball rate.

As for the starting rotation, John Means leads the way, continuing his impressive rookie campaign. Many, myself included, considered Means as nothing more than a fringe-relief prospect, yet Means is proving that he’s a major league starting pitcher, and a pretty darn good one. He keeps the Orioles in games and gives them an opportunity to win, unfortunately, his bullpen hasn’t helped him out.

The only other pitchers with a positive WPA- Andrew Cashner (0.30), Shawn Armstrong (0.14), and Branden Kline (0.13).