Baltimore Orioles: The Most And Least Helpful Players Of 2019
Which players have helped the Baltimore Orioles the most this season? Who has hurt this team the most? Let’s dive in and find out.
The 2019 season started on such a high note for the Baltimore Orioles. With a brand new regime leading the way and a fresh face taking charge in the dugout, the Orioles hit the road to begin 2019, earning series wins against the New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays. We all knew this success wasn’t going to last, but life was good for a short while.
Since then, this team has crashed back to reality. With a 15-36 record, Baltimore now holds the worst record in the major leagues and remains on track to not just break, but completely shatter the major league record for home runs allowed in a single season.
The Cincinnati Reds allowed 256 home runs back in 2016, however, the Baltimore Orioles are on pace to surrender more than 300 round-trippers in 2019 and have already become the team quickest to give up 100, completing that in game 48 of the season. While the 2019 season seems to be flying by, there are still 100-plus games remaining on the schedule. Hold on tight.
There are many different statistics we can use to see who is performing well and who is struggling. Many of these numbers are solid indicators of future production and can be used to predict the odds of a future event happening, but for the purposes of this piece, I want to look back at what has already happened.
Wins Probability Added is a fun number we can use to see which players have helped swing the odds of a win more in favor of the Orioles. When calculating batting average, all hits count the same. When calculating slugging percentage, all home runs are equal. How do we differentiate between a single when a player’s team is up 10-2 in the 8th inning from a single in the ninth inning of a tied game? Wins Probability Added will do just that.
From Fangraphs, “Win Probability Added (WPA) captures the change in Win Expectancy from one plate appearance to the next and credits or debits the player based on how much their action increased their team’s odds of winning.” For example, let’s say the Orioles have a 40% chance of winning a particular game and Chris Davis bats in the sixth inning, hits a home run, and increases the O’s chances of winning to 55%. In this scenario, Davis adds 0.15 to his WPA (in return, the pitcher he hit the home run off of will have 0.15 subtracted from his WPA).
If Davis comes up to bat with the Orioles holding a 95% chance of winning the game, hits a home run, and increases the odds to 96%, he adds just .01 to his WPA. It’s a pretty simple formula which takes the game scenario into account. I particularly like this line from the Fangraphs explanation linked above- “It doesn’t tell you how well a player performed, it tells you how important their performance was.”
With that in mind, let’s look at which players on this Baltimore Orioles roster have been the most important.
Would you believe me if I said a Baltimore Orioles reliever had the highest WPA?
First, some context. As of May 25th, Cody Bellinger of the Los Angeles Dodgers leads all major league hitters with a 2.87 WPA. Josh Bell sits in second with a 2.41, while Christian Yelich, Mike Trout, and Mookie Betts round out the top five. They are the only hitters with a WPA of 2.0 or higher, for now. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Eduardo Nunez has the worst WPA among major league hitters with at least 50 at-bats (-1.79).
As for pitching, San Diego Padres closer Kirby Yates currently leads all pitchers with a 2.14 WPA and Washington Nationals reliever Wander Suero holds a league-worst -1.71 WPA. This is among pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched. If we include a 10-inning minimum, San Francisco Giants reliever Will Smith leads the way with a 2.18 mark.
What about the Baltimore Orioles?
Only seven hitters have a positive WPA for the Orioles. One of those is pitcher John Means (0.1), another is Anthony Santander (0.24 in one game), and recently acquired Keon Broxton (0.14) also appears on this list. This means we are looking at just four regular hitters on the positive side of this metric.
Third baseman Rio Ruiz leads the way at 0.46 WPA, with Trey Mancini coming in second at 0.29. Mancini was abysmal, as far as WPA is concerned, last season, finishing with a -2.72 mark. Currently hitting .300 with 10 home runs and an .890 OPS, Mancini has done most of his damage within the first three innings of games (.368/.388/.684 compared to a .250/.333/.482 slash late in games). All the action early on in a game isn’t going to swing the probability of win too much, in either direction.
On the other hand, Rio Ruiz has been clutch when up to bat in a tied game or when the Orioles are up or down by one run. He’s hitting .440 (11-25) when the game is tied and has a .914 OPS when the Orioles are within one run. Ruiz has quietly gone about his job this season, serving as a more than capable third baseman. Unless a major free agent acquisition or trade to bring in a third baseman occurs, Ruiz will likely be around for a bit.
The other players who find themselves in the positive- Austin Wynns (0.07) and Dwight Smith Jr.(0.12).
Pitching WPA leaders for the Baltimore Orioles.
The pitching staff hasn’t done much to help this team win, that is obvious. In a piece I put together a few weeks ago, I highlighted the hot stretches of Ruiz and Gabriel Ynoa. In that piece, I made some comment about not trusting anyone in the Baltimore Orioles bullpen. Regretfully, Paul Fry never crossed my mind. I guess that is what happens when you are an Orioles pitcher who actually does their job. My apologies to Paul Fry.
Of the small number of pitchers who have helped the Orioles win ballgames, or at least push the odds higher in their favor, Paul Fry has been the best. His 0.80 WPA currently leads the O’s staff.
Fry has appeared in 21 games this season, posting a 3.32 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 21.2 innings. He isn’t striking opponents out at a high clip (just 13 punchouts) but he is limiting hitters to a .197 average and producing a 63.5% groundball rate.
As for the starting rotation, John Means leads the way, continuing his impressive rookie campaign. Many, myself included, considered Means as nothing more than a fringe-relief prospect, yet Means is proving that he’s a major league starting pitcher, and a pretty darn good one. He keeps the Orioles in games and gives them an opportunity to win, unfortunately, his bullpen hasn’t helped him out.
The only other pitchers with a positive WPA- Andrew Cashner (0.30), Shawn Armstrong (0.14), and Branden Kline (0.13).
Which players are not giving the Baltimore Orioles help in winning ballgames?
Last season, only three hitters had a positive WPA for the Baltimore Orioles. I will give you a minute to take a guess at who you think they were………..have your guesses? Manny Machado is an easy guess, congratulations. If you had DJ Stewart and Luis Sardinas as your other two guesses, you win a prize. Sardinas reached base just four times in eight games for the O’s, but they made an impact.
The early numbers are more positive in 2019, comparatively speaking, but there are still a few players who haven’t been able to show up when needed.
Catcher Pedro Severino and his -0.84 WPA ranks last among O’s hitters. He’s been a positive addition to the team (.244 average, .333 OBP, five home runs) but he has been non-existent in key situations. Sevy is hitting .148 with runners in scoring position and has an OPS under .600 when hitting in a tied or within one run game. Most of his damage has come when the game is already out of hand. When the Orioles are ahead or behind by five or more runs, Severino is slashing .308/.400/.615.
Also finding their name at the bottom of this list- shortstop Richie Martin (-0.80) and infielder Jonathan Villar (-0.70).
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Pitchers who aren’t getting things done for the Baltimore Orioles.
Three pitchers currently have a WPA of -1.00 or higher, which is surprisingly low. Dan Straily, now a relief arm for the O’s, is at -1.02, Miguel Castro sits at -1.11, and starting pitcher David Hess leads the way at -1.47. This is what happens when you surrender 17 home runs in 10 appearances.
Overall, Hess is 1-6 with a 6.75 ERA (7.48 FIP) and 1.42 WHIP. As Brandon Hyde has recently mentioned, the only reason Hess is still in the starting rotation is that there is no one else to take his place. Dan Straily has already been relegated to the pen (I don’t care who replaces him, Straily should never pitch in an Orioles uniform again) and the major league ready options in AAA are non-existent. Keegan Akin has been dominant, but as Mike Elias proclaimed, Akin and Mountcastle aren’t going to be called up anytime soon.
Hang in there, O’s fans. There is a light at the end of the tunnel. The talent level in the farm system is trending up, the draft is just a few days away, and the international signing period is quickly approaching. The Orioles won’t land any of the top players in this year’s international class, but Mike Elias says they will be very active and make their presence known. Let’s see if all of this will pan out.