Baltimore Orioles: Five Bold Predictions For The 2019 Season

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BALTIMORE, MD – APRIL 06: Starting pitcher Jake Arrieta #34 of the Baltimore Orioles delivers the first pitch of opening day to batter Denard Span #2 of the Minnesota Twins during the first inning at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on April 6, 2012 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

The 2019 season is going to be a very long season for fans of the Baltimore Orioles. Before the year begins, we make five bold predictions for 2019.

First, there was a rush of optimism as fans learned more about new Baltimore Orioles general manager Mike Elias and new man in charge of analytics, Sig Mejdal. The optimism continued to rise as young prospects like Austin Hays, Yusniel Diaz, and Ryan Mountcastle came out of the gate firing in spring training.

Then the Baltimore Orioles started playing against more major league regulars, the top prospects were sent to the minor leagues, intriguing young players like Chance Sisco, Anthony Santander, and Tanner Scott were optioned to AAA, Mark Trumbo went from more regular playing time to the 60-day injured list, and Opening Day starter Alex Cobb was shelved with a groin injury.

The Opening Day roster isn’t set in stone but we do have a preliminary 25-man roster which you can view here. It doesn’t exactly invoke happy feelings or an eager longing for the 2019 season, but this is who we have to watch.

Are you sure you’re ready for a 162 game season of the rebuilding Orioles? This team will test the patience of all of us. The relationship will be rocky at times, but will come out of this stronger than ever. At least this is what I’m going to continue to tell myself throughout the summer.

Before Thursday’s Opening Day game against the New York Yankees, let’s take a look at five bold predictions for the 2019 season. I’m going out on a limb for a few of these, but none of these predictions are unachievable.

How many bases will the Baltimore Orioles steal in 2019? A lot more than we have seen in recent history.

For four-straight seasons (2014-2017), the Baltimore Orioles ranked dead last among all Major League Baseball teams in stolen bases, swiping 44 bags twice and as few as 19 in a full season. That number jumped significantly in 2018 as the Orioles finished with 81 stolen bases, good for 12th in the majors.

Adam Jones, Jace Peterson, Craig Gentry, and Manny Machado accounted for 40 of those steals, none of whom are returning to the lineup this season (Peterson may, but he won’t start out with the big league team).

Bold prediction number one- the Baltimore Orioles will do something they haven’t done since 2007 (144 SBs) and steal more than 100 bases. Let’s put the mark at 125.

Villar stole 35 bases last season and as many as 62 when he led the league in 2016. Cedric Mullins has 51 stolen bases in his last two seasons down on the farm, while Rule 5 picks Richie Martin and Drew Jackson combined for 47 last year in AA ball.

There is plenty of speed on this roster and the Orioles have showcased it during spring training. Manager Brandon Hyde has already stated that he would reel it in when the regular season starts, but what does this team have to lose? Why not run wild, push the luck a little bit, and see what these players are truly capable of?

Blue Jays, Rays, and Yankees catchers were all below league-average as a team in caught-stealing percentage. Test those arms in 2019 and run wild.

BALTIMORE, MD – AUGUST 29: A general view during the second inning of the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays game at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on August 29, 2018 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

The Baltimore Orioles starting rotation won’t be fun to watch, but there will be a few bright spots.

Many of the top pitching prospects in the Orioles’ system are years away from finding themselves on the major league roster (DL Hall and Grayson Rodriguez are both younger than 21), but LHP Keegan Akin, the sixth-ranked prospect in the system according to MLB Pipeline, is entering his fourth season in the organization and coming off a stellar season in Double-A.

Co-recipient of the Jim Palmer Minor League Pitcher of the Year Award, Akin went 14-7 with the Bowie Baysox, posting a 3.27 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 25 starts. He led the Eastern League in strikeouts, wins, and batting average against, winning Eastern League Pitcher of the Year honors.

A former second-round pick of the O’s, Akin uses a mid-90s fastball along with a changeup and slider to produce a decent amount of strikeouts (24.8% K-rate in 2018). He’s a bit of a sleeper in the organization who gets knocked for his frame, high walk-rate, and possible role as a relief pitcher in the major leagues. However, Akin went at least six innings while giving up two or fewer earned runs in three-straight games, three different times last season.

Many of those fears are eliminated when you are at the ballpark and watching him live. Akin will begin the season with the Norfolk Tides, but that’s not where he finishes 2018.

That leads us to our next bold prediction- Keegan Akin makes his major league debut and finishes among the team leaders in WAR. He gets his first start before the trade deadline but assumes a full-time role in the rotation when at least two starters are shipped at the deadline.

BALTIMORE, MD – AUGUST 11: Trey Mancini #16 of the Baltimore Orioles celebrates with Cedric Mullins #3 after scoring a run on a double by Renato Nunez #39 (not pictured) in the second inning against the Boston Red Sox during game two of a doubleheader at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on August 11, 2018 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images) /

The highest rated hitter for the 2019 Baltimore Orioles will be outfielder Cedric Mullins.

Taking Manny Machado’s 3.8 fWAR during his tenure with the Baltimore Orioles out of the equation, infielder Jonathan Villar led the 2018 Orioles with a 1.3 fWAR (54 games). Third baseman Renato Nunez appeared in just 60 games and finished behind Villar with a 0.9 fWAR.

This year’s team will likely see many low WAR totals like last year’s roster, but 2019 is all about growth and finding out who has a role on the team as we look beyond 2019 and who the Orioles should move on from. One player who I’m confident will have an influential role this season is outfielder Cedric Mullins.

So this isn’t an extremely bold prediction with names like Pedro Severino, Joey Rickard, and Rio Ruiz in the lineup, but Cedric Mullins will lead the team in WAR in 2019.

Mullins has hit double-digit home runs in each of his past three seasons in the minor leagues, has a stolen base success rate of 81% on the farm, and is capable of logging at least 30 doubles across a full major league season.

On the surface, his spring numbers left much to be desired, but there were a few key numbers that allow a bit of confidence in this prediction. Mullins drew a walk in 12% of his plate appearances while striking out in just 12% of at-bats. Six of his eight hits went for extra bases, including three doubles and three home runs. He was also a perfect 4-4 in stolen base attempts.

In a piece by Peter Schmuck of The Baltimore Sun, manager Brandon Hyde discussed Mullins and what he has seen of the 24-year-old outfielder,

“Watching him briefly in September, he’s a guy that’s got some tools, that’s got some kind of sneaky pop,” Hyde said, “and now it’s just getting experience and understanding the league and understanding how to take major league at-bats and improving defensively in center … things like that, understanding the big league game.”

Will talk of Austin Hays possibly playing center field when he reaches the majors have any effect on Mullins’ performance? He’s a small-school product who has had to prove everyone wrong his entire career. I’ll put my money on that type of player any day of the week.

BALTIMORE, MD – JULY 09: Jimmy Yacabonis #31 of the Baltimore Orioles pitches in the first inning during a game one of a doubleheader baseball game against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on July 9, 2018 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images) /

The Baltimore Orioles will send just one representative to the All-Star game, it will be a pitcher, and it will be an opener.

Every team gets to send a representative to the All-Star game, so no matter how bad things get, one player is sure to make their way to Progressive Field in Cleveland for the Mid-Summer Classic. One of the “most anonymous team in MLB history” according to FiveThirtyEight, it’s hard to see any position player earning enough votes.

How about a starting pitcher? Nope. That leaves a bullpen arm as the one Baltimore representative at the 2019 All-Star game.

Bold prediction number four- that arm is Jimmy Yacabonis. Jon Meoli of The Baltimore Sun recently called Yacabonis “one of the best raw arms in the system.” We have seen what he is capable of at the major league level, when he is left alone and allowed to pitch without constantly traveling between Baltimore and Norfolk. Just look at his 2.61 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and .205 average against him through 20.2 September innings.

https://twitter.com/pitchingninja/status/1016433766376632321?lang=en

If the Orioles keep Yacabonis as an opener or reliever and allow him to go max effort in shorter stints, he can be a dangerous weapon out of the bullpen. He isn’t a starting pitcher, no matter how much the previous regime wanted him to be. With a fastball like the one seen above and his slider that produced a .170 batting average and 36% whiff rate last season, it’s not far-fetched to believe that Yacabonis becomes the top reliever on the roster and gets an All-Star nod.

BALTIMORE, MD – APRIL 10: Fans enter the stadium prior to the Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles home opener at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on April 10, 2015 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

Where will the Baltimore Orioles finish in the loss column?

I’m not going to come out and say something ridiculous like the Orioles will finish close to .500 or finish ahead of the Tampa Bay Rays or Toronto Blue Jays, because they won’t. I don’t want to watch this team lose on a consistent basis but they will. Brandon Hyde and his players are going to continue to say the right things and put on a brave face, however, everyone knows what’s in store for the 2019 Baltimore Orioles.

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Is it too crazy to predict that this team will not lose 100 games? Last season set a franchise record for losses in a single season but was just the third time since 1954 that the Orioles have suffered 100 or more defeats in a season. I’m going to confidently say this team does not reach triple digits in the loss column. It just might be in the high-90s, but it won’t hit 100.

The roster will be equipped with information the previous regime could not dream of providing to their players. Brandon Hyde is a first-year manager looking to make a name for himself and the roster is full of young players determined to prove they belong in the major leagues.

Prospects will find their way onto the major league roster at some point in 2019, which will infuse some excitement into the lineup and possibly steal a few wins. Besides, this team can’t possibly be worse than last season…right?

dark. Next. Orioles Opening Day Roster Set, For Now

Do you have any bold predictions for the 2019 Baltimore Orioles or Major League Baseball in general? Let us know!

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