Baltimore Orioles: Five Prospects Facing Key Seasons In 2019

The Baltimore Orioles farm system is growing and is sure to progress with new leadership in place. Here are five individual prospects who are approaching key seasons.

Unless you’re a fan of the Seattle Mariners or New York Mets, this offseason has consisted mainly of longingly staring into the cold, dark void that is winter. For fans of the Baltimore Orioles, it has been especially brutal, with much of the offseason focused on building a front office and staff. The additions of general manager Mike Elias, assistant GM of analytics Sig Mejdal, and manager Brandon Hyde are all positive first steps and have injected hope and intrigue into a fanbase which witnessed their beloved O’s drop a league-high 115 games. But what about the play on the field?

What will define success in 2019? A simple answer is growth. Does Austin Hays rebound from an injury-plagued 2018 and produce at the major league level? Will a league-worst starting rotation see improvements from top of the rotation arms in Dylan Bundy (5.45 ERA, 41 home runs allowed) and Alex Cobb (4.90 ERA, 1.41 WHIP)? Can Trey Mancini put his sophomore slump behind him and become a stable presence in the lineup?

The same thing can be said about the Baltimore Orioles’ farm system. This system isn’t as void of talent as some believe, with a number of recent draft picks finding early success in the lower-minors and showing real promise to become major league contributors. Top prospect Ryan Mountcastle hit nearly .300 and improved his walk rate with the Double-A Bowie Baysox last season and will likely make his Orioles’ debut at some point in 2019, but I want to look elsewhere for this piece.

Over the next few slides, I’m taking a look at five Baltimore prospects who are preparing for very critical seasons this year. You can make a case for many more names here, for various different reasons. This isn’t a list of prospects who need a big year or this is it for them and there isn’t a particular order here. After following this system for the last few years, I want to look at five guys who have had great success in the lower minors, but will now face a new set of challenges in 2019. All five names discussed have the potential to be regulars on the Orioles’ active roster. This season will be a tremendous step forward to that goal.

Zac Lowther will be challenged in Double-A. Will he conquer the challenge?

Few pitchers in the Orioles’ minor league system have had the success that Zac Lowther has had over the course of his first two professional seasons. Originally drafted 74th overall in the 2017 MLB draft out of Xavier, Lowther has already mastered three levels of the minors, spending much of his 2018 season with the High-A Frederick Keys. The next question that Lowther has to answer is, can he find success in Double-A?

Making the jump from High-A to Double-A is often considered to be the toughest jump to make in the minor leagues. Armed with a three-pitch mix (four-seam, changeup, curve), Lowther will look to combine his “vexing funk” (David Laurila of Fangraphs), solid command, and high-spin fastball to continue his upward trend and high-strikeout performances.

Across 33 career minor league starts (35 appearances), Lowther is 10-6 with a 2.02 ERA and 0.94 WHIP, showing a dominant ability to limit hits, including home runs. Even in hitter-friendly Harry Grove Stadium (Frederick Keys home), Lowther gave up just 0.58 HR/9 IP and held opponents to a .216 batting average. Known as a strikeout artist during his college days, Lowther has recorded 226 punchouts in 178 minor league innings, while keeping his walk rate below 8% at all three stops he has made on his minor league tour.

The co-Jim Palmer Minor League Pitcher of the Year (with Keegan Akin) has what it takes to be a stable force in the backend of a major league rotation. A big year with the Bowie Baysox will solidy this notion.

Will RHP Brenan Hanifee start missing more bats in 2019?

I often forget that RHP Brenan Hanifee has yet to turn 21 years old and he’s not done developing physically. That’s a scary thought for opposing hitters. Arguably the most athletic pitcher in the Orioles’ system, Hanifee has had a fantastic start to his pro career, going 15-9 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.09 WHIP across 200 innings between short-season Aberdeen and full-season Delmarva.

A groundball artist, Hanifee has worked groundball rates of 58% and 54.5% in his first two seasons, with an even more impressive 4% walk rate in his career. He may not strike out a lot of hitters, but he hasn’t needed to, thus far. His pitch-to-contact style has been successful, thanks to the great sink he produces with his fastball and ability to hit his spots.

This season will be a big year for Hanifee for a few reasons. He’s likely to find himself with the High-A Frederick Keys and will be facing always tough Carolina League hitters. He doesn’t turn 21 until the end of May, so he will be going up against older competition that can’t be beaten with just his low-90s fastball and an average slider. The fastball velocity will go up, his slider has shown an improvement in each of his first two seasons, now let’s see the changeup.

He’s a workhorse with very low mileage on his arm, having not been a full-time pitcher since his senior year of high school. If he can show off his changeup and produce a few more strikeouts, you might start seeing Hanifee’s name a little more often, nationally. Like Lowther, he is a potential future rotation piece in Birdland.

If Matthias Dietz can find his command, the Baltimore Orioles might have something.

Matthias Dietz has done exactly what you want your prospects to do in the minor leagues, show improvements each and every year. The stat line hasn’t shown it, but when you are at the ballpark watching him, you see it. Armed with a powerful fastball that reaches into the upper-90s with ease, Dietz was considered the top JUCO arm in the 2016 draft when the Orioles used a second round pick to select the right-handed pitcher. Since then, he has worked his way up to Advanced-A ball, but now needs to show he can put it all together on the mound.

After struggling with his command in his first two years with the Orioles, Dietz used his repeated time in full-season A ball with the Delmarva Shorebirds to show he could limit baserunners and miss bats with his four-pitch repertoire, increasing his strikeout rate by nearly 8%, compared to his 2017 campaign in Delmarva.

Unfortunately, things fell apart with his promotion to High-A. Dietz made 11 appearances, going 1-6 with a 7.98 ERA and 2.06 WHIP, walking 39 and striking out just 27 in 38 innings. He gave up four or more runs in five of his nine starts with Frederick, making it out of the 4th inning in just two of those starts.

Don’t let the high ERA and walks scare you off, yet. There is plenty of valuable potential here with Dietz, if he can find his command, ASAP. As with the final name on our list, featured on the next slide, a move to the bullpen could be a positive step with Dietz. His fastball/slider combo may be quite the weapon out of the pen for the Birds.

Would a move to the bullpen be more beneficial for RHP Michael Baumann?

Michael Baumann began 2018 as a nearly un-hittable starter with the full-season Delmarva Shorebirds, before making his final 17 starts of the year with the Frederick Keys, finishing with a 13-5 record and  3.17 ERA between the two levels.

Since my days writing for the now-defunct Baby Birdland, a blog about the Baltimore Orioles’ minor leagues, I’ve been an advocate of moving Baumann to the bullpen. His mid-90s fastball and solid slider would play up in short bullpen stints and his 6’4″ and 225-pound frame can hold up in a long relief role. The move could also increase his dominance against right-handed hitters, something he has had great success with since the Orioles drafted him in 2017.

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There is little doubt that he will pitch in a starting role in 2019, likely returning to Frederick to start the season. If Baumann has a successful spring training, he could begin in Bowie, however, after walking 40 hitters in 92 innings as a member of the Frederick Keys, the Orioles may want to see that he can command the strikezone in the Carolina League before moving him up to the Eastern League.

Both his groundball and strikeout rates dropped significantly in 2018, as his FIP approached 5.00 in High-A (4.71). Baumann will need to turn this around in 2019, if he wants to remain a starter. Although, as I mentioned before, a move to the bullpen could provide a major boost to his career and allow him to move more quickly through the system. As long as the walks decrease, there’s real bullpen potential with Baumann and 2019 will go a long way in telling us more about his future role with the Baltimore Orioles.

What about you, Orioles fans? Which prospects are you watching closely in 2019? Do you think Alex Wells still has starter potential? Does Cameron Bishop peak your interest? Is this the last chance for Hunter Harvey? Let us know below!