Baltimore Orioles: Three resolutions for the 2019 season

It’s the New Year! Welcome to 2019, Baltimore Orioles fans. We have three resolutions for the Orioles heading into the 2019 season

The Baltimore Orioles future might be looking brighter than it has been the past couple years but Mike Elias has a lot of work to do if the O’s are going to get back to the top of the AL East. Will he have resolutions of his own for the New Year? Maybe. Do you?

New Year resolutions are as cliche a topic as you’ll find, but we’ve got three of them for the Orioles as they head into 2019 trying to fix the train wreck that this organization has become.

First, Elias, Sig Mejdal, and Brandon Hyde need to figure out what Dylan Bundy is and make any necessary adjustments.

Is Dylan Bundy an ace? Probably not, but at his best in 2018 he was ineffective. He lost velocity across the board, with his average fastball dropping to 92.1 mph, according to Brooks Baseball.

Is Dylan Bundy hurt? Potentially, but we’re not sure because the Orioles didn’t disclose any information on the topic last year.

Bundy finished the 2018 season with a 5.45 ERA / 5.17 FIP, and a 24.5% strikeout rate. He allowed a league-worst 41 home-runs, and for the second straight season allowed a hard contact rate over 34%.

He might never live up to the prospect hype, but Bundy has talent. His slider generated a 26% whiff rate in 2018 and batters hit just .178 against it last year. But his other pitches got destroyed: he allowed a .574 SLG and 20 homers off the four-seamer, a .645 SLG off the curve, and a .733 SLG off the changeup.

Ideally, Brandon Hyde will replace pitching coach Roger McDowell. Whoever replaces him can work with Bundy to help him do a better job sequencing his pitches and using his off-speed stuff to get batters out. If Bundy struggles, the Orioles likely will as well.

Second, the Orioles need to find third baseman.

It will likely be Renato Nunez, at least to open the season, along with potential appearances from Drew Jackson, Rio Ruiz, and Steve Wilkerson. Will it eventually be Ryan Mountcastle?

In 60 games in Baltimore last year, Nunez hit a respectable .275/.336/.445 with 7 homers and a 113 wRC+, though Baseball Prospectus’ DRC+ had him a bit lower at 93.

Nunez posted -1 DRS at third base for the Orioles last year, though defensive metrics are unreliable in small sample sizes. He looked like a passable defender there, from what I saw, but he’s not likely a superstar.

Ruiz and Jackson are cheap options, and hopefully both will be effective for the Orioles next year, but forgive me if I have trouble getting excited over a waiver claim and a Rule 5 pick. I have doubts that either are the third baseman of the future for the Orioles.

There are questions about whether Mountcastle can pull his weight defensively at the hot corner, but his bat should translate to the majors, regardless.

Mountcastle hit .297/.341/.464 with 13 homers in Bowie last year. His 18.5% strikeout rate isn’t terrible, but it’d be nice to see him improve on the 6.1% walk rate, especially against the level of competition.

Mountcastle has just under 600 plate appearances at Double A, and if I’m guessing, there’s no way he sees time in Baltimore this year. Elias might not want to start Mountcastle’s service time clock just yet.

The Orioles new player development department needs to work with Mountcastle to see if he can stick at third base, or if his defense necessitates a move to a corner outfield spot or first base. If Mountcastle has to move, it’d be wise to do it as soon as possible to get him defensive reps before he’s in Baltimore.

Third, the Orioles need to fix whatever is wrong with Chris Davis.

During his introductory press conference, Mike Elias stated, “this lineup, and this team, is at its best with a productive Chris Davis, a dangerous Chris Davis in the middle of the lineup”. It’s true; the Baltimore Orioles are better if Davis is good.

Unfortunately he was terrible in 2018. Davis finished the year with hitting .168/.243/.296 with just 16 home-runs and a league worst 46 wRC+. His -3.1 fWAR tied 1997 Jose Guillen for fifth-worst all time.

The Orioles owe roughly $84 million to Davis over the next four years, plus the deferred money in the deal. He’s an untradeable asset right now; no team is taking on his contract, or any portion of it. The Orioles are stuck with Davis for the foreseeable future, so they need to spend time helping him out of this funk.

Davis is still a serviceable defender at first. He’s not going to win a Gold Glove out there; his -4 DRS last year suggest he’s slightly below average. But he isn’t killing the Orioles both offensively and defensively.

As long as Davis is a dead spot in the lineup, the Orioles are going to struggle. If he’s blocking Trey Mancini or Ryan Mountcastle at first, it’s a problem. But if he’s hitting, it’s easier to deal with. Brandon Hyde and Mike Elias have a tall task at hand, getting Davis back on track, but if they succeed, the Orioles have a lot to gain.

The ceiling for Davis at this point probably isn’t 50 home-runs or anywhere near his 2013 peak. But if they can get him back to .230/.300/.450 with passable defense, it’s at least a start.

What are your New Year’s resolutions, Orioles fans?