Baltimore Orioles: Brandon Hyde could let O’s run wild in 2019

The Baltimore Orioles plan to be aggressive on the basepaths under Brandon Hyde

During last Thursday’s edition of the Hot Stove Show on 105.7 The Fan, Baltimore Orioles manager Brandon Hyde spoke about pushing the Orioles toward playing the game the right way, including being more aggressive on the basepaths.

In the interview, Hyde stated, “I think the more aggressive you are on the bases, the more you cause havoc defensively”.

This would be a stark difference from the Orioles that we’re used to. Under Buck Showalter, the Orioles finished dead last in steals from 2014 through 2017, and finished last in the category in five of Showalter’s 8+ seasons, including a lethargic 19 combined steals in 2016.

The 2018 squad stole 81 combined bases, 21 of which came from Jonathan Villar. And of all the players on the Orioles roster, Villar could stand to gain the most out of a more aggressive approach on the basepaths.

Steamer projects Villar to steal 30 bases in 2019, with a .319 OBP in 522 plate appearances.

His 21 steals with the Orioles last year came in just 54 games, and he was caught just 3 times; in a full season with the Orioles, Villar could put up big stolen base numbers.

In 2016, his peak season with the Brewers, Villar posted a .369 OBP and he stole 62 bases in 80 tries, good for a 78% success rate which is right in line with his career average.

It’s tough to envision Villar coming close to that .369 OBP again, but there’s no reason to think that he can’t surpass his projections. Villar is a career .325 OBP guy; he could absolutely post a .330 mark hitting atop the Baltimore Orioles lineup.

If Villar can get on-base at a 33% clip, and Hyde is serious about remaining aggressive when the opportunities arise, Villar could get 60+ attempts in a full season and steal close to 50 bases. It’s optimistic, sure, but it’s not unrealistic and it would drastically boost his trade value, which would only help the Orioles.

The only other player on the roster projected to steal double digit bases is center-fielder Cedric Mullins.

Steamer has Mullins stealing 17 bases, with a .313 OBP in 640 plate appearances.

The steals don’t seem unrealistic for Mullins; he had an 81% success rate in the minors and stole 21 bases in 22 tries in Norfolk last year. If Mullins can consistently get on base, Hyde will send him.

But Mullins had trouble getting on base last year, especially against left-handed pitching. He was able to draw walks against lefties (14% walk rate in 55 plate appearances), but he hit .156 against them with a .452 OPS.

In total, Mullins posted a slash line of .235/.312/.359 with a walk rate just shy of 9%; that’s simply not good enough. He’ll have plenty of time to develop, and Hyde and Mike Elias will likely spent a good deal of time working with Mullins, trying to improve his approach, because Mullins projects to be a part of the future in Baltimore.

Rule 5 draft picks Drew Jackson and Richie Martin are projected to steal six bases each next year, but we’ll see how their playing time works out. Jackson has a career 80% stolen base success rate in the minors, while Martin’s is at 66%.

Outfielder DJ Stewart is the one other intriguing name on the list. Steamer projects him to steal 8 bases next year, but in just 385 plate appearances. Stewart has a career 78% stolen base success rate and he could benefit from a more aggressive approach on the basepaths, but it seems likely that he’ll split time in right-field with Joey Rickard, at least to start the season.

If everything goes right in 2019, the Orioles could come close to 100 combined steals, a mark the O’s haven’t surpassed since 2007.