Birds Watcher builds the most correct Hall of Fame ballot

Like it or not, Hall of Fame voting season is here, and with it comes the constant bickering about, and internet trolling of, public ballots. In a world full of hot takes, Birds Watcher is here to provide you the most correct Hall of Fame ballot in 2018

I do this to myself at this time every year. I say to myself, “Tim, don’t get yourself worked up over these Hall of Fame ballots, it’s not worth it”. And every year, the ballots come in and some of them are so bad, I can’t help but get frustrated about them. Omar Vizquel? Manny Ramirez over Barry Bonds? Go away. So today at Birds Watcher, we’re analyzing the current Hall of Fame ballot and building the correct one.

Keep in mind, this isn’t intended to put other writers on blast; they’re allowed to be wrong and have bad opinions. I just want to evaluate the cases of the eligible players and determine who belongs in the Hall of Fame, and who doesn’t. Then we’ll whittle the list down to the 10 most deserving names and submit, to you the reader, the true 2018 Hall of Fame ballot.

First we need to figure out which players are deserving of a vote

Let’s see the list of returning players:

Barry Bonds (7th year on ballot), Roger Clemens (7th), Andruw Jones (2nd), Jeff Kent (6th), Edgar Martinez (10th, final), Fred McGriff (10th, final), Mike Mussina (6th), Manny Ramirez (3rd), Scott Rolen (2nd), Curt Schilling (7th), Gary Sheffield (5th), Sammy Sosa (7th), Omar Vizquel (2nd), Billy Wagner (4th), and Larry Walker (9th).

And the newcomers:

Rick Ankiel, Jason Bay, Lance Berkman, Freddy Garcia, Jon Garland, Roy Halladay, Travis Hafner, Todd Helton, Ted Lilly, Derek Lowe, Darren Oliver, Roy Oswalt, Andy Pettitte, Juan Pierre, Placido Polanco, Mariano Rivera, Miguel Tejada, Vernon Wells, Kevin Youkilis and Michael Young.

We can slash the newcomers down considerably, right off the bat. Serious contenders, and players who need further consideration are Berkman, Halladay, Helton, Oswalt, Pettitte, Rivera, and Tejada.

Okay, we’re down to 22 names between the first-time eligible guys and the returnees. Two things before we do it: one, I’m more big-hall than small-hall and two, steroids don’t make you a good baseball player. Bring on the hate mail.

PPS: If you aren’t sure about OPS+, it’s on-base percentage plus slugging (OPS), normalized for external factors, like ballparks (ex. Coors), and scaled where 100 is average. 120 = 20% better than average, 80 = 20% worse. Also, I tend to prefer bWAR for pitchers because it’s based on ERA rather than FIP, and for consistency, I’m using it for hitters as well. 

Lance Berkman: 15 years, 7,814 PA, 1,905 H, .293/.406/.537, 366 HR, 144 OPS+, 52.1 bWAR, 6* All-Star. Berkman was an outfielder early on in Houston before moving to first base as he entered his 30’s. In 2002, he led the league with 128 RBI.

He hit 40+ homers in a season twice, and hit 30+ three times. He finished top-5 in the MVP voting four times, twice in the top-3 in ’02 and ’06. Berkman had a very good career, but he doesn’t have the peak nor the cumulative stats to get him over the hump. This isn’t the Hall of Very Good. Thanks for playing.

Roy Halladay: 16 years, 2,749.1 innings, 3.38 ERA, 3.39 FIP, 2,117 K, 3.58 K/BB, 203 W, 64.3 bWAR, 8* All-Star, 2* AL Cy Young. Everyone who pitched in the early 2000’s lived in Pedro Martinez‘ shadow, but for a time, Halladay was one of the best pitchers in baseball. He led the league in innings pitched four times and he led the majors in complete games seven times.

Halladay finished in the top-5 in Cy Young voting for six consecutive years, and seven total, winning the award twice. The argument against him is that he doesn’t have the cumulative stats to get in; it’s a valid argument but his peak was as good as any. Halladay is in.

Todd Helton: 17 years, 9,453 PA, 2,519 H, .316/.414/.539, 369 HR, 133 OPS+, 61.2 bWAR, 5* All-Star, 4* Silver Slugger, 3 Gold Gloves. Helton was a very good hitter who happened to play for the Rockies and spent most of his time at altitude; where Helton was a very good hitter otherwise, Coors made him great.

The home/road splits are real: 1.048 OPS at home, .855 on the road. He never finished higher than fifth in MVP voting and had just three top-10 finishes, meaning voters at the time didn’t think he was among the best in the game. I don’t think he was either, but that doesn’t mean he wasn’t great. He might be near the back of the list of qualified guys, but he’s qualified.

Roy Oswalt: 13 years, 2,245.1 innings, 3.36 ERA, 3.37 FIP, 1,852 K, 3.56 K/BB, 163 W, 50.1 bWAR, 3* All-Star. I’d forgotten how good Oswalt was at his peak. He had five top-5 Cy Young finishes, he led the league with a 2.98 ERA in ’06, and five times posted an ERA below 3.00.

Though Oswalt was an excellent pitcher during his peak, it just didn’t last long enough, nor did he compile enough around the peak to make a realistic case for the Hall. Oswalt was very good, but again…thanks for playing.

Andy Pettitte: 18 years, 3,316 innings, 3.85 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 2,448 K, 2.37 K/BB, 256 W, 60.3 bWAR, 3* All-Star. Pettitte was the compiler’s compiler. He was a very effective pitcher for a long time, posting an ERA above 4.50 just twice in his 18 years. He had five top-5 Cy Young finishes but he never struck out 200 batters in a season, and he has very little black ink on his Baseball Reference page.

Pettitte was a nice pitcher, but if he spent the majority of his career in Milwaukee or Kansas City, he wouldn’t have nearly as much support for the Hall. Plus, don’t forget that he gets a pass for PED’s when none of the other guys do. He’s not a Hall of Famer.

Mariano Rivera: 19 years, 1,283.2 innings, 2.21 ERA, 2.76 FIP, 1,173 K, 4.10 K/BB, 652 SV, 56.2 bWAR, 13* All-Star. Rivera is likely the best single-inning relief pitcher of all time. He threw one pitch for 19 years and he posted an ERA over 3.00 just twice in his career, while posting a sub-2.00 mark 11 times. Single-inning relievers are significantly less valuable than starting pitchers, but you have to appreciate Mo’s dominance over the years, especially as the all-time saves leader. He’s a first ballot Hall of Famer, without a doubt.

Miguel Tejada: 16 years, 9,205 PA, 2,407 H, .285/.336/.456, 307 HR, 108 OPS+, 47.3 bWAR, 1* AL MVP, 6* All-Star, 2* Silver Slugger. Tejada was as consistent as they come during his peak. He played 162 games for 6 straight years, he led the league with 150 RBI in ’04, and he won the ’02 AL MVP in Oakland. Tejada is ultimately on the outside looking in, but we can look back on his time in Baltimore with reverence and appreciate him as a very good baseball player.

So we have Halladay, Helton and Rivera in so far. Let’s take a look at the returnees and see who makes the cut from that group. We’ll break up the 15 returning candidates into a couple slides, rather than bunch them all together. They’re split alphabetically.

Barry Bonds: 22 years, 12,606 PA, 2,935 H, .298/.444/.607, 762 HR, 182 OPS+, 162.8 bWAR, 7* MVP, 14* All-Star, 8* Gold Glove, 12* Silver Slugger. Barry Bonds is the best baseball player of all time, full stop. Mike Trout still has time to change my mind, but Bonds was on another level. 1.051 career OPS, led the league in walks 12 times, 10 times in OBP.

He won four consecutive MVP awards, he’s the single season and all-time HR leader, all-time walks leader. He had 12 seasons with 8+ bWAR and three with over 10. And we’re not voting him in because, what, he doesn’t have 3,000 hits? The best baseball player ever being left out of the Hall of Fame is an absolute travesty.

Roger Clemens: 24 years, 4,916.2 innings, 3.12 ERA, 3.09 FIP, 4,672 K, 2.96 K/BB, 354 W, 139.6 bWAR, 1* MVP, 7* Cy Young, 11* All-Star. As good as Bonds was at the plate, Clemens was just as good on the mound.

Neck and neck with Pedro Martinez as the best starting pitcher of the modern era, Clemens won 7 ERA titles, five strikeout titles, and led the league in innings twice. He has a career 143 ERA+ and he posted more than 8 bWAR six times. Clemens is a Hall of Famer regardless of whether or not he took steroids or PED’s.

Andruw Jones: 17 years, 8,664 PA, 1,933 H, .254/.337/.486, 434 HR, 111 OPS+, 62.8 bWAR, 5* All-Star, 10* Gold Glove, 1* Silver Slugger. Jones led the league with 51 homers and 128 RBI in ’05, and he was one of the best center fielders in MLB for over a decade. His case is predicated on his total home-run numbers and his peak more so than his overall body of work.

His defense fell off in the latter half of his career and he doesn’t have the cumulative numbers to compensate. The 434 homers look nice, but he doesn’t have a ton outside of that on his side; Jones is just barely on the outside looking in.

Jeff Kent: 17 years, 9,537 PA, 2,461 H, .290/.356/.500, 377 HR, 123 OPS+, 55.4 bWAR, 1* MVP, 5* All-Star, 4* Silver Slugger. Kent won the ’00 MVP despite being the second best player on his own team. The only black ink on his Baseball Reference page are his two league-leading sacrifice fly seasons in ’98 and ’01. Kent was a fine hitter, finishing in the top-10 in MVP voting three times outside of his one victory, and he amassed over 100 RBI seven times. His offensive peak was quite good but he was a zero on defense, leaving him just barely on the outside.

Edgar Martinez: 18 years, 8,674 PA, 2,247 H, .312/.418/.515, 309 HR, 147 OPS+, 68.4 bWAR, 7* All-Star, 5* Silver Slugger. Edgar presents one of the most precarious Hall of Fame cases on the ballot. On one hand, he was an outstanding hitter taking home the batting title two times, twice garnering top-6 MVP finishes and having nine straight seasons in which he posted a 139 OPS+ or higher.

On the other, he was a DH for the majority of his career, providing no defensive value. Based on offensive merits along, Martinez is a borderline candidate, but I have him on the right side of the line.

That’s 6 yes votes total; 3 for Bonds, Clemens, and Martinez in addition to Halladay, Helton and Rivera.

Gary Sheffield: 22 years, 10,947 PA, 2,689 H, .292/.393/.514, 509 HR, 140 OPS+, 60.5 bWAR, 9* All-Star, 5* Silver Slugger. Sheffield doesn’t have much black ink on the Baseball Reference page, leading the league in batting average, on-base percentage and OPS just once each. He had three top-3 MVP finishes but was a poor defender, moving off third base too late in his career and never having enough range in the outfield.

But Sheffield was an excellent power hitter, posting a slugging percentage over .600 three times, and an OPS over 1.000 five. On one hand, he’s in the exclusive 500 HR club but on the other, he was an atrocious defender for so long. I struggle with this one as much as the Helton case, but if Helton and Vlad Guerrero are in, Sheffield needs to be too.

Sammy Sosa: 18 years, 9,896 PA, 2,408 H, .273/.344/.534, 609 HR, 128 OPS+, 58.6 bWAR, 1* MVP, 7* All-Star, 6* Silver Slugger. Sosa is another one of this group of really good hitters, including Ramirez, that are good enough to get in based on their merits but they have some kind of connection to steroids, or in Sosa’s case, a corked bat. I don’t condone Sosa’s cheating but a corked bat didn’t make him one of the most prolific home-run hitters of all time, nor did it earn him an MVP award, or earn him the home-run crown twice.

Naturally, Sosa hit 60+ homers three times in his career but the two times he led the league, he hit 50 and 49. The case against him, like Sheffield, is that his defense was mediocre at best, but Sosa’s bat alone get him into the Hall of Fame.

Omar Vizquel: 24 years, 12,013 PA, 2,877 H, .272/.336/.352, 80 HR, 404 SB, 82 OPS+, 45.6 bWAR, 2* All-Star, 11* Gold Glove. There’s really no case to be made that Vizquel belongs in the Hall of Fame, other than that he was a very good defender for much of his career. The JAWS system rates him as the 42nd best shortstop of all time, not anywhere close to entry in the Hall.

I put Vizquel’s SB numbers up there because his line looks awful without them. Tell me about how he played the game the right way, and I’ll tell you about how he hit double-digit homers just once and he only posted an OPS+ over 100 twice in his career. Vizquel is not a Hall of Famer, not now, not ever.

Billy Wagner: 16 years, 903 innings, 2.31 ERA, 2.73 FIP, 1,196 K, 3.99 K/BB, 422 SV, 27.7 bWAR, 7* All-Star. Wagner garnered Cy Young votes twice and MVP votes twice, but he didn’t acquire many accolades outside of being one of the best single-inning relief pitchers in baseball during the late 1990’s and early 2000’s. Wagner had one really bad year in ’00, but had 14 seasons with an ERA under 2.85 (his second highest career mark), five of which were under 2.00.

He wasn’t as good as Rivera but he was on par with Hoffman, despite having slightly fewer saves and innings pitched (Wagner’s career 2.31 ERA was 50 points better than Hoffman’s 2.87). I didn’t support Hoffman’s case then and I struggle to support Wagner’s now, but if we’re putting single-inning relievers in the Hall of Fame, Wagner is as deserving as almost any.

Larry Walker: 17 years, 8,030 PA, 2,160 H, .313/.400/.565, 383 HR, 141 OPS+, 72.7 bWAR, 1* MVP, 5* All-Star, 7* Gold Glove, 3* Silver Slugger. Walker won seven Gold Gloves without ever being an exceptional defender, but his 49 homers led the league in ’97 and he won three batting titles. He hit .350 or better four times, posted an OPS over 1.000 six times, and twice posted a slugging percentage over .700.

His 72.7 bWAR is 10th all-time among right fielders. Say Coors all you want, that 141 OPS+ and 140 wRC+ prove that he was an exceptional hitter regardless of which ballpark he played in. Vlad getting in over Walker was incredibly disappointing; if Walker gets left out of the Hall altogether, it’ll be a travesty on the voters part.

That makes 15 guys who should be in the Hall. Now that we’ve got the Yes list, we need to pick the ten best and get our ballot in order.

So 15 total players deserving of Hall of Fame induction.

Bonds, Clemens, Halladay, Helton, Martinez, McGriff, Mussina, Ramirez, Rivera, Rolen, Schilling, Sheffield, Sosa, Wagner, and Walker. If the BBWAA didn’t have the 10-player limit per ballot restriction, some of these players wouldn’t be losing votes. But alas!

More from Birds Watcher

• Baltimore Orioles Sign RP Mychal Givens
• Gunnar Henderson: Destroyer of Four-Seam Fastballs
• Which Current Baltimore Orioles Pitchers Have the Best Curveballs?
• Orioles News: Should the O’s Pursue Eovaldi? + More MLB News
• Should the Baltimore Orioles Consider Signing Nathan Eovaldi?

Bonds and Clemens are in and it’s not close. They’re two of the best players in baseball history and they’re part of the story of baseball. That’s what this is, right? From the Hall of Fame’s mission statement,

“The Hall of Fame’s mission is to preserve the sport’s history, honor excellence within the game and make a connection between the generations of people who enjoy baseball…Honoring, by enshrinement, those individuals who had exceptional careers, and recognizing others for their significant achievements”.

Walker is in, as is Rivera, which makes four definite yes votes. Halladay, Mussina and Schilling are in. They were three of the best pitchers of their generation and are all more than qualified for election.

So we’ve got three spots left between Helton, Martinez, McGriff, Ramirez, Rolen, Sheffield, Sosa, and Wagner. We can take out Wagner, the others are just better. Ramirez and Rolen are the best of the group, while Helton, Sheffield and Sosa are quite similar, but that feels like the correct order. Gut feeling, the answer is Helton, Ramirez, and Rolen, but the final year thing with Martinez and McGriff is a problem.

Here’s the ballot:

Bonds, Clemens, Walker, Rivera, Halladay, Mussina, Schilling, Martinez, McGriff, Ramirez. 

Here’s why it’s correct:

The first four, Bonds, Clemens, Walker, and Rivera are undeniably the four best players on the ballot. The other three pitchers, Halladay, Mussina, and Schilling are in because I said so, and also because they’re three of probably the best ten pitchers of the era. Martinez and McGriff, yes because they fall off the ballot after this year, but also because they’re deserving. And Ramirez because he’s the best hitter of the remaining players.

Thanks for sticking around so long, avid reader!  Is your ballot more correct than mine? Disagree that players connected to steroids belong in the Hall? Or that Larry Walker was significantly better than Vlad Guerrero? Feel free to let me know how wrong I am in the comments, but just know, you’re wrong about me being wrong.