Baltimore Orioles: Four players who under-performed in 2018

Chris Davis had one of the worst seasons ever for a major league hitter

We miss the good Chris Davis. The one from 2013 with a 1.004 OPS and a third-place MVP finish. That’s the guy Peter Angelos paid for in 2016.

But Davis has been on a steep, downward slope since he signed that contract. In the three seasons since, Davis has a sub-.300 on-base percentage with over 600 strikeouts. It’s not just that his power has disappeared; it’s that everything else that made him a good hitter has gone as well.

FanGraphs Depth Charts projections pegged Davis for an OPS just below .800, a 107 wRC+, and a 12% walk rate that matched up well with his career average.

That isn’t the expectation for a $20 million per year first baseman, but it’s better than average; it’s not negative value.

What the Orioles got from Davis in 2018 was significantly worse. He had the worst batting average in MLB history for a qualified hitter, at .168.

His 36.8% strikeout rate led the majors, and his 7.9% walk rate was easily his worst since 2012. Combine that with a .539 OPS, a 46 wRC+, and -3.1 fWAR and we can say that we witnessed one of the worst seasons by a major league hitter ever.

It’s a tough look for Davis, who for all his faults on the field is an exceptional person and a valuable part of the Baltimore community. That’s the hard part; that Davis is so likable off the field that we can’t help but keep pulling for him when he’s on it.

At this point, Davis is overpaid and unlikely to ever regain his “Crush” moniker. Fans will be clamoring for his exit as soon as possible next year, and the year after that if he makes it that far. And his contract will almost certainly go down as one of those “horrible MLB contracts” you’ll read about 10 years from now.

Don’t get me wrong, the Orioles need to find a way to get Davis off the field, and if they can get out from under that contract, it’ll be huge for the organization; they can spend that money elsewhere. But it’d be easier to hate on him if he weren’t such a positive person in the community.

Go away, bad Chris Davis. We want the old you.

We could list a handful of prospects here, but Chance Sisco had a really terrible 2018 season

I wanted to avoid players who seemingly disappointed while laboring through injuries, but Chance Sisco was just put through the ringer this year, and he came out looking much worse than we’d have hoped.

FanGraphs listed him as the number two prospect in the Orioles system coming into 2018, acknowledging his above-average bat control, feel for hitting pitches in the zone, and raw power as positives for the young catcher and knocking him for his below-average arm strength.

Sisco did deal with concussion issues this year, but overall, it was a disappointing season for Sisco, who was projected to be splitting time with Caleb Joseph behind the plate in Baltimore.

FanGraphs Depth Charts projections had Sisco as a below-average hitter, but for a 22-year-old rookie catcher, that’s to be expected. Projected for an OPS just over .700 with an 89 wRC+ and serviceable strikeout and walk rates, Sisco under-performed in every measure.

Sisco split time between Baltimore and Triple-A Norfolk, but in his 63 games with the Orioles, he hit .181/.288/.269 with just 2 homers, a 35.9% strikeout rate and a 59 wRC+. His time in Norfolk wasn’t significantly better, where he posted a sub-.700 OPS.

Sisco will continue to get opportunities behind the plate to improve as a defensive catcher, but the offense needs to pick up in order for him to hold value for the Orioles. If Sisco can’t hit, he isn’t a enough of an impact-defender behind the plate to make him worth the roster spot.

Hopefully 2019 brings better health to Sisco, so he can focus on the things that matter, like his development, rather than dealing with concussion symptoms and injury-recovery.

He’ll still be highly-touted coming into next season, and there’s still time for him to become the Orioles every-day backstop. But the sooner we can forget Sisco’s 2018, the better.

Dylan Bundy has always been hyped as the Orioles future ace. Is it time we let go of that assumption?

Scrolling through the trove of Getty Images, it’s disheartening to see just how many pictures there are of Dylan Bundy with his head in his hands. Ideally, we wouldn’t have many of these pictures to choose from, but Bundy hasn’t lived up to the expectation of Ace since he started pitching in an Orioles uniform.

The Orioles Opening Day starter was projected by FanGraphs Depth Charts for 28 starts and a 4.56 ERA, a 4.63 FIP, and 8.2 K/9.

Bundy did make 31 starts this year, which is valuable in itself, but his performance across those starts was severely disappointing. He did post more than a strikeout per inning for the first time in his career, but his 5.45 ERA, 5.17 FIP and the league-leading 41 homers allowed are all way below-average.

Bundy’s 15.2% soft contact rate induced was fourth-worst among qualified starters, but what’s really worrying is that his average fastball velocity was down to 92.0 mph this year.

That’s easily the lowest mark of his career, down from his 2016 high of 94.9 mph. A three mph drop in fastball velocity is usually a good indication of an injury, but neither Bundy nor the Orioles announced anything in the way of an arm or shoulder issue for him in 2018.

There’s still a pathway to success for Bundy, but it’s hard to believe that it’s through the current research & development and analytics team in the Orioles front office, or with current pitching coach Roger McDowell.

This piece by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic ($) provides valuable insight into the Orioles front office, and their lack of awareness regarding how to provide players with the best available information.

Maybe the new leadership in the front office will help Bundy develop into the pitcher we once thought he could be, but after this season, it’s hard to remain optimistic for the young hurler going forward.

Orioles shortstop Tim Beckham wasn’t projected to be an all-star, but his 2018 season leaves questions about his future in Baltimore

As the first overall pick in 2008 for the Tampa Bay Rays, shortstop Tim Beckham has always had lofty expectations for his career.

Acquired by the Orioles at the 2017 trade deadline, Beckham provided solid defense and hit well in his first 50 games with the Orioles. He posted a career-high .871 OPS with 10 homers after coming to Baltimore, skyrocketing his expectations for the 2018 season.

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Orioles fans were higher on him than projection systems, but he was still pegged as an everyday shortstop with plus-power and good bat control.

FanGraphs Depth Charts projections had him for a .733 OPS with a 92 wRC+ and 22 homers. As 2018 came to a close, those numbers stood at .661, 79 and 12 respectively.

Beckham did miss a good chunk of time in 2018 due to core-muscle surgery, however the time he spent on the field wasn’t encouraging. The hope here is that Beckham was ineffective due to the injury, not despite it but we wont know for sure until 2019 gets under way.

The real problem with Beckham is that he’ll be heading into his age-29 season next year, and the Orioles don’t project to be good for at least another three seasons, at best.

Beckham is eligible for an arbitration raise that’ll put his annual salary just north of $4 million. That shouldn’t be an issue for the Orioles who are expected to run one of the lowest payrolls in MLB next year.

But what it does do is decrease the usefulness of Beckham on the Orioles roster. He won’t be here the next time the Orioles make a playoff run. Ideally, he’ll be a good everyday player on the 2019 Orioles and the team can swing him in a trade either around the 2019 deadline or in next year’s off-season and get back some prospects who can help future Orioles teams win meaningful games.

The list of disappointing 2018 Orioles could go on and on, but it doesn’t do to dwell on the past. The Orioles need to focus on building this team for the future, starting with a new front office and new leadership in and around the clubhouse.

2019 shouldn’t be as bad as this year was for the Orioles, as most of the players on this team will see some positive regression. But the Orioles can’t rely on their current leadership to get the job done. Changes need to be made, and fast, if this organization wants to pull out of this tailspin anytime soon.