Nelson Cruz, Chris Davis, and the Baltimore Orioles

Over the weekend of course my big topic of conversation was the potentiallity of the Baltimore Orioles trading first baseman Chris Davis. First off I want to remind fans once again that these are only rumors. The Miami Marlins had inquired about Davis’ availability, and the Orioles responded. This type of “sparring” isn’t uncommon as we lead up to MLB’s winter meetings. Having said that, could this have more to do with Nelson Cruz than anythin else?

If the O’s were to move Davis, that would free up some salary in order for them to go out and keep Cruz on the team. I’ve often said that no team can keep everyone, and I do in fact believe that. Thus Dan Duquette might very well be taking a “Moneyball” type of look at the roster for 2015, and could be starting to realize that if he can move a big piece like Davis he might have an easier time keeping another big piece in Cruz.

This also might tell us where the organizational midset lies going into 2015. While allowing him to go elsewhere doesn’t mean that they’re out of anything, keeping Cruz would signal to the fans that the Orioles are really “going for it” in 2015. One would hope that they’re thinking that way to begin with, however you’re keeping arguably the best power hitter in the league and also getting something in return for a pretty darned good power hitter in his own right.

Courtesy of Joy R. Absalon-USA TODAY Sports

However keep in mind that the Orioles face the same question as any potential suitor for Cruz this year. Was 2015 a mirage, or was it real? It’s tough to say. Teams tend to like more than just a one-year barrage of home runs before they’re truly going to believe. There are also teams out there who are probably convinced that Cruz was juicing this year with the Orioles despite being tested on numerous occasions.

I would submit that there are in fact multiple years with Cruz showing this type of production. He hit 40 home runs with the Orioles this past season. He was also suspended for the final 50 games of 2013, a season in which he put up 27 homers over 109 games. If he plays those final 50 games, he’s probably in the same neighborhood as 2014 – which of course would further call into question what he was using in the minds of many.

Free agency is always a chess game. The Orioles were the big winners in 2014 given who they got and for what price. As lost as Ubaldo Jimenez looked at various points, let us not forget that he was the impromptu winning pitcher in the division-clinching game. And you could even throw in the Grant Balfour situation and say that Duquette won that chess match also.

My point is that if there’s one thing that fans should have learned about Duquette, it’s that he’s pretty good at chess and poker. However the cards fall in free agency, odds are it’ll be the right move in the long run. Furthermore, Buck Showalter will find a way to make whatever cards he’s dealt work well.