Trevor Rogers’ ascent to baseball royalty with the Orioles could be determined by one pitch

Trevor Rogers just spent an entire season basically reminding everyone, “yeah… this is why teams trade for lefties with pedigree.” The Baltimore Orioles got a legitimate ace season in 2025: 9-3, a 1.81 ERA, and a 0.90 WHIP over 109.2 innings. 

Rogers’ 1.81 ERA was the best in Orioles history (since 1954) among pitchers who logged at least 100 innings. He also took home the 2025 Louis M. Hatter Most Valuable Oriole Award. Now here’s an interesting part: for all the dominance, there’s still one pitch in Rogers’ bag that shows up to the party like it didn’t read the dress code. His sinker.

The one tweak that could make Trevor Rogers terrifying for the Orioles in 2026

On the surface, it’s the weak link in a five-pitch mix that otherwise feels like a cheat code. Statcast had opponents hitting .296 against Rogers’ sinker in 2025, with an expected batting average (xBA) of .343 and some pretty loud contact indicators. It's a pitch that he clearly can’t cruise with. Instead, it’s the one pitch that doesn’t look in the same ZIP code as the others.  

If the sinker either (A) improves, or (B) gets used less strategically, Rogers goes from a front-line starter to the pitcher you’d design in a video game and then delete for being too broken. The rest of his profile is already screaming stability: he ramped his velocity back up (MASN noted both his four-seamer and sinker/two-seam living over 93 and touching close to 96), and he paired that with a career-best 66 percent first-strike rate that forced hitters into uncomfortable at-bats. 

Get strike one is the blueprint. Make them swing earlier. Let the secondary pitches do the damage.

So the sinker becomes the pivot point. If it’s just a show-me pitch that leaks back over the heart of the plate, that’s where the “regression is imminent" crowd starts warming up.

But if the Orioles and Rogers can tighten the shape, command, and usage — then the “regression” conversation gets a lot quieter. You’re not asking Rogers to repeat 1.81. You’re asking him to live in that top-of-the-rotation neighborhood again… and stay there.

If 2025 was the comeback season, 2026 is the throne test. The sinker is the one pitch that decides whether he’s just visiting Orioles royalty… or moving in permanently.