Countdown to the Trade Deadline: 8 Days 1 Hour

For those of you who can’t do the math or the more likely scenario: for those of you who are too lazy to do the math, the Trade Deadline is fast approaching as it is July 31 at 4 PM Eastern Time. With that said, it’s believed the Orioles may actually make a move or two.
Here are the players most available to be traded:
DH Vladimir Guerrero
DH/LF/1B Luke Scott
1B Derrek Lee
RP Jim Johnson
RP Koji Uehara
SP Jeremy Guthrie
Here are the players who are likely to be traded:
RP Koji Uehara
SP Jeremy Guthrie

And even that may be tough as the O’s have a relatively high asking price for them both. First, I’ll tell you why the others will not be traded.

DH Vlad Guerrero
Not only is he on the DL right now, he’s been performing pretty poorly in the last 2 months. He has a .279 batting average but only has hit 7 home runs and 31 RBIs. That’s not exactly great numbers for your clean-up hitter much less a supposed power DH. So, he’s worth basically nothing, would clear waivers, and his contract is up at the end of the season anyways so the Orioles will just wade out the season with him on the roster.

1B Derrek Lee
Although he’s great defensively at first, his offense is so inconsistent that no other team really wants him either. He would also clear waivers and is a free agent at the end of the season so the O’s will hold on to him as well. His batting average shows his inconsistencies as he’s only hitting .237 with 10 homers and 34 RBI. He also has an extremely low on-base percentage of .292.

The many (bad) positioned man of Luke Scott
Same situation as the above two except the reason he’s staying is more so because he just played the last game of his season Friday night. He’s faced shoulder problems all season and at first played through it, then had a stint on the DL, then played really well in Double-A, then came back up for one game to go right back on the DL after going 0-for-3 and realizing he isn’t healthy. He’ll either get surgery or choose rehab but either way he’s done for the season and no one wants him.

RP Jim Johnson
This is the only one that won’t get traded because he actually has talent. He has pitched the most innings of any relief pitcher in the league with over 50 innings pitched. He has a 2.59 ERA with 38 strikeouts, 1 save, 14 holds, and a 5-3 record. He also has a WHIP of 1.15 (walks and hits to innings pitched), which is a pretty good number. To top it all off, the Orioles are considering making him a part of the starting rotation next season so he will also make a few starts this season to get a feel for it.

Now, onto the 2 players that have a pretty good chance of being sent packing.
SP Jeremy Guthrie
There’s been reports that a lot of teams are connected with Guthrie such as the Yankees (never gonna happen), the Red Sox (also never gonna happen), the Tigers, the Twins, the Indians, the Angels, and the Rangers even though he’s having a tough year. He either gets lots of run support but gets batted around or gets no run support, pitches well, and still loses. He has a 4-13 record right now with a 4.35 ERA but a lot of contending teams would like to see him in the back of their rotation. The Orioles will want a good amount for him though since he’s the only veteran and inning-eater on their rotation. They definitely will want a major league-ready pitcher as well as another player or prospect. It depends on how badly the team wants Guthrie and what that team thinks he’s worth. The Twins and Phillies have recently sent scouts to Camden Yards during their Indians series and Red Sox series. The scenario that’s looking to be pretty heavily favored is trading Guthrie to the Twins for their pitcher Kevin Slowey (who’s in the minors at the moment) with one of their many young outfielders (hopefully one that can play left). Remember, these two dealt with each other this off-season with the O’s getting Hardy for a few minor league pitchers. Maybe they should talk to Hardy about Slowey. Just so you know: he’s only pitched 14 2/3 innings this season and has a 4.91 ERA. He’s listed as a relief pitcher but could start as he pitched a 6-inning start against the Blue Jays in May where he gave up 4 runs on 5 hits as well as 4 1/3 innings against the Red Sox where he gave up only 1 run on 6 hits. So, he can play any role: starting pitcher, long-relief, or situational relief. This could turn out to be a pretty decent deal.

RP Koji Uehara
A lot of contenders are really looking at him as the Phillies were in town to scout Koji for their bullpen. Again, the O’s would require quite a good deal to send him away but could get one. The Pirates and Twins are also pretty interested in him (the Twins were at Camden Yards scouting him as well recently) and I can see why. He’s got a low ERA of 1.80 with a crazy 59 strikeouts in 45 innings pitched as well as a 0.69 WHIP. He hasn’t given up a run since June 19, that’s 13 scoreless innings pitched since then. He only gave up 2 runs in all of June.

I really like the Twins deal for Guthrie, Slowey may do well here and we need someone consistent in left field. Felix Pie doesn’t do it offensively and Nolan Reimold is decent but isn’t an everyday-line-up type guy yet. As for Koji, I’d like to see him stay and he’s also said that but he’s also said he wants to win. For him, I’d need to get a major league-ready pitcher as well, preferably a starter and a veteran at that as well as a prospect.

I’ll update if I hear word on any more rumors or, of course, when actual trades happen.